436 FXUS64 KLUB 241747 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1147 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020 .AVIATION... Lower clouds have stayed north of KCDS this morning and VFR will prevail at all terminals this afternoon into this evening. The breezy NW winds currently affecting KCDS will weaken through the afternoon, but all three terminals will see a cold front move through this evening. Expect a brief period of strong/gusty northerly winds immediately behind the FROPA which could also kick up a little BLDU. Have addressed this with a TEMPO. The post- frontal northerly winds will diminish early Tuesday before increasing behind another cold surge during the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, there is a slim shot KCDS could see a light rain shower and/or brief sub-VFR conditions late this evening, behind the front, but confidence in this is too low to include in the TAF. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020/ DISCUSSION... Low pressure has now moved into north central Oklahoma early this morning however a tight pressure gradient remains in place over our area. This is leading to still some breezy NW winds especially over the southeast Texas Panhandle, however the gradient will relax as we go through the morning. Weak surface low pressures will develop yet again across northeast New Mexico today which will allow winds to become more westerly this afternoon, leading to yet another nice warmup across the area into at least the mid to upper 60's. Tonight, a stronger cold front will move into the region and usher in a much colder air mass. Some model guidance continues to indicate precipitation development along the front especially across the southeast Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma due to strong lift associated with the front. However, have left out a mention of showers at this time due to the limited moisture that will accompany the front. The front will also lead to a short period of breezy northerly winds just behind it however, by early Tuesday morning lighter winds will prevail. Tuesday afternoon surface ridging will begin to develop/move into our forecast area tightening the pressure gradient yet again across the area leading to breezy northerly winds of 20-30 mph Tuesday afternoon. With these breezier winds and lower humidities, elevated fire weather conditions may develop. As surface high pressure continues to build Tuesday evening a colder airmass will settle into the region with overnight lows into Wednesday morning bottoming out in the mid teens to 20's. Northwest flow aloft will dominate the remainder of the week's weather with dry and gradually warming conditions expected through the weekend. /WCI && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 58/23