712 FXUS62 KMHX 232102 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 402 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2020 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure will impact the area Monday through midweek. High pressure will again build over the area for the end of next week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 PM Sun...High pressure passes overhead this evening and offshore overnight. Mainly clear skies and calm winds will allow for very efficient radiational cooling from sunset through the late night hours. However, as the H5 ridge axis slides east and heights begin to fall aloft early Monday morning, cirrus coverage will increase and limit cooling, likely resulting in seasonable lows in the mid to upper 30s away from the beaches being achieved several hours before sunrise, with temps holding more steady or maybe rising a degree through the pre-dawn hours. Isolated patchy ground fog is possible late near moisture sources (ditches, creeks, swamps, etc.), but overall very dry boundary layer air will inhibit substantial fog formation. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... As of 330 PM Sun...Upper level height falls continue Monday, bringing mostly cloudy conditions. Low level ridging in place at sunrise shifts north through the morning, allowing greater theta-e values to overspread the area behind a warm front focused around 800 mb, and shower chances begin to overspread the area from south to north mid-to-late morning. However, the boundary layer may still take a couple of hours to moisten, and scattered to widespread light shower activity is expected to hold off until the afternoon. Temps will be a few degrees above normal, as the increasing low level thicknesses are offset by more robust cloud cover. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 215 PM Sunday...A wet pattern is expected through midweek as a strong low pressure moves from the Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes and a series of weak fronts cross the area. High pressure will bring cooler and drier air by the end of the week. Monday Night through Wednesday Night...Strong low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley and move toward the Great Lakes, drawing deeper moisture north into the Carolinas as precipitable water values jump to around 1.5 inches by early Tuesday. Widespread light rain will likely be underway at the start of the period Monday evening and will persist through much of Tuesday. Rainfall amounts of 0.5-0.75" are expected Monday night and Tuesday. The first wave of precipitation will move offshore Tuesday evening, but probabilities remain high for scattered showers Tuesday night into Wednesday evening as a series of weak fronts impact the area before the main cold front moves offshore late Wednesday night. With the strong warm advection regime, above normal high temperatures are expected both Tuesday and Wednesday with highs upper 60s away from the water Tuesday and into the lower 70s over many areas Wednesday. Thursday through Sunday...A broad upper level trough will persist across the eastern United States for the end of the week into next week as surface high pressure builds in from the north and west. This will lead to a period of below normal temperatures. High temperatures Thursday through Saturday will generally be in the low/mid 50s with lows in the low/mid 30s. A reinforcing cold front crosses the area later on Saturday with lows Sunday morning in the upper 20s, and most highs in the upper 40s. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term /through 18Z Monday/... As of 1230 PM Sunday...VFR prevails through the period as high pressure moves overhead and offshore and winds remain light. Lack of moisture is expected to preclude any significant fog threat overnight, but patchy shallow fog inland around sunrise Monday morning can't be completely ruled out. Mid-level clouds begin to build in early Monday morning, but any shower activity should hold off until later Monday afternoon. Long Term /Monday Night through Friday/... As of 220 PM Sunday...Unsettled weather with periods of showers are likely Monday night through at least Wednesday night, bringing widespread sub-VFR conditions. Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected to return for Thursday and Friday. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Monday/... As of 330 PM Sun...High pressure slides offshore tonight, prompting winds to trend from light around sunset to more moderate southwest overnight. Then, early Monday morning, troughing strengthens along the coast and winds become light again with increasing shower activity. 2-4 ft seas this evening become 2-3 ft overnight into Monday as easterly windswell subsides. Long Term /Monday Night through Friday/... As of 220 PM Sunday...Persistent SW to W winds are expected through midweek at 10-20 knots. Latest NWPS shows seas building as early as early Tuesday morning to 6 feet and SCA's will likely be needed through at least Thursday afternoon before seas subside behind cold front. Seas should drop back to 3-5 feet for Thursday night and Friday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...CTC/CB MARINE...CTC/CQD/CB