480 
FXUS64 KTSA 232048
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
248 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Main forecast concern continues to be the potential for locally
heavy rainfall tonight and into tomorrow morning across parts of 
northeast Oklahoma, with low end snow accumulation potential
remaining Tuesday night/Wednesday morning in far northwest 
Arkansas.

Widespread light rain has prevailed today across much of eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Additional rainfall, including
some pockets of moderate to heavy showers, will continue to expand
across the area as the upper level system currently over parts of
Colorado and New Mexico continues to push eastward overnight.
Lightning strikes have been detected recently from activity in
eastern New Mexico and parts of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles,
and it is likely that some increase in instability and isolated
lightning potential will extend across our area tonight, as the 
upper system moves closer. Rainfall across southeast Oklahoma will
end before anywhere else in the forecast area, as the dry slot 
moves in after midnight tonight, with rainfall lingering along the
Kansas and Missouri borders into the daytime tomorrow near and
north of the track of the surface low.

Another storm system will move through the area on the heels of
the current one, affecting the area Tuesday and into Tuesday
night. Overall, models appear drier with this system than at this
same time yesterday, with parts of northwest Arkansas and far
northeast Oklahoma most likely to see precipitation during this 
time frame. Any light rain Tuesday afternoon will transition to 
snow or rain/snow mix Tuesday night, with any accumulations
remaining at a quarter inch or less.

Dry weather will prevail for the rest of the forecast beginning
Wednesday. Wednesday will feature well below normal temperatures,
with warmer conditions arriving Thursday and continuing through
the weekend. Above normal highs will be in the offing by Sunday
and possibly on Saturday as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  56  37  54 /  90  30   0  20 
FSM   49  61  38  56 /  90  20   0  10 
MLC   50  58  37  54 /  80  10   0  10 
BVO   46  53  32  51 / 100  40   0  20 
FYV   46  58  35  51 / 100  40   0  20 
BYV   45  60  36  50 / 100  50   0  20 
MKO   48  57  36  53 /  90  20   0  10 
MIO   47  55  34  49 / 100  60   0  20 
F10   47  56  36  54 /  80  10   0  10 
HHW   51  60  38  57 /  70   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


LONG TERM....22