226 
FXUS64 KBRO 220848
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
248 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2020

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Mid level ridging moves overhead 
from the west today supporting subsidence aloft. Surface high 
pressure across the region extending into the Northwest Gulf of 
Mexico this morning will move eastward through the period. Satellite 
imagery indicate a few passing mid to high level clouds overhead and 
some lingering low clouds just off the lower Texas coast early this 
morning. Temperatures across the area are in the 40s with light 
winds. Today will be mild with high temperatures reaching the mid to 
upper 60s as light east to southeast winds develop. Partly cloudy 
skies are expected this morning but mostly cloudy skies should 
return this afternoon into this evening. A warm front will advance 
northward across the CWA tonight into Sunday morning. Low 
tempeatures tonight will fall into the mid to upper 50s to around 
60. However, temperatures tonight, especially near the coast, may 
remain steady or even warm a few degrees before sunrise as the warm 
front approaches. Some patchy fog will also be possible across 
portions of the northern ranchlands late tonight as the warm front 
moves northward. Sunday will be breezy and warm with high 
temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s across much of 
the area under a mix of sun and clouds. The combination of 
strengthening surface low pressure across west Texas and high 
pressure over the Gulf will support breezy south to southeast winds 
near the coast. 

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday): Low pressure deepens
across the Southern Plains and heads northeast as a weak cold
front swings through Texas on Monday. This brings the best chance
of rain through the long term, especially across coastal counties.
Generally WSW flow aloft turns more zonal behind the frontal
passage, allowing a weak mid-level disturbance to progress
eastward while a weak coastal surface trough tries to develop
across the western Gulf of Mexico, bringing an additional chance 
of rainfall across the RGV Tuesday afternoon. Have generally kept 
POPs under 20 percent for any rainfall Monday or Tuesday. Strong 
high pressure settles south through the Plains and to the southern
border the rest of the week with a reinforcing surge of cool and 
dry air arriving Wednesday into Thursday. Mid-level flow also 
turns northwesterly as the mid-level trough axis swings offshore. 

Temperatures Monday and Tuesday warm into the 80s. With the
northeasterly surge of cooler air on Wednesday, temperatures drop
below normal for the remainder of the long term period. Lows
Thursday morning may dip into the 30s across the ranchlands and
upper valley. Relative humidity values drop into the teens on
Wednesday afternoon, with some elevated 20 foot winds. This could
become a fire weather concern if winds increase any more than
current guidance. Even drier air is expected on Thursday, with
lighter winds. 

&&

.MARINE (Now through Sunday): Light winds prevail along the lower Texas 
coast early this morning. Buoy020 reported east-northeast winds of 6 
knots with gusts near 12 knots and seas around 5.6 feet at 0220 CST/ 
0820 UTC. High pressure across the area will gradually move east 
through the period. Light to moderate east to southeast winds and 
moderate seas are expected today and tonight. The gradient 
strengthens along the lower Texas coast on Sunday allowing an uptick 
in winds and seas. Small craft exercise caution conditions will be 
likely on the Laguna Madre and the offshore Gulf waters (20-60 NM) 
on Sunday. 

Sunday Night through Friday: Low pressure deepens across the
Plains and works northeast, bringing a cold front across the lower
Texas coastal waters on Monday. Expect elevated seas to subside
later Monday into Wednesday as high pressure begins to build.
Strong high pressure surges southward with reinforcing northerly
winds on Wednesday, building seas Wednesday morning and creating
hazardous marine conditions into Thursday. As high pressure
settles across the Gulf of Mexico, expect marine conditions to
improve into Friday, with very favorable seas to start the
weekend. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  66  60  76  66 /   0  10  10  10 
BROWNSVILLE          67  60  78  67 /   0  10  10  10 
HARLINGEN            68  58  79  65 /   0  10  10  10 
MCALLEN              69  58  80  65 /   0  10  10  10 
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  56  83  63 /   0  10  10  10 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   64  62  74  67 /   0  10  10  10 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63-Caceres...Short Term/Aviation
56-Hallman...Long Term/Upper Air