267 FXUS61 KPHI 191430 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 930 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move through to our north tonight through Wednesday dragging a cold front through the region. High pressure builds in behind the front and dominates through the weekend. The next low pressure system looks to affect the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Light rain can be seen on radar, mainly hanging just offshore this morning and will continue to push tot he east through the day. Outside of a stray light shower in extreme southern Delaware, conditions should remain dry. The mid and high lvl cloud deck will continue to push offshore through the morning hours with most areas becoming mostly sunny by mid to late morning (apart from maybe far southern Delmarva). Today will be dry as cold and strong (>1045 mb) High Pressure over the Upper Midwest begins to exerts its influence over our area. Although there will be continued cold advection in WNW flow, abundant sunshine and cooling aloft should promote efficient mixing. Expect highs to reach near or just above climo, ranging from the mid to upper 30s in the Poconos to near 50 over Delmarva. Generally expect mostly sunny skies apart from some passing cirrus, and possibly some stratocumulus over primarily the Poconos. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... A dry night is expected under continued cold advection. Despite the cooling airmass and mostly clear skies, the radiational cooling potential will be tempered somewhat by persistent (albeit light) NW winds. Consequently expect near-climo overnight lows, ranging from the upper teens in the Poconos to the upper 20s in Delmarva. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Quiet weather dominates the rest of the week as the region sits under and area of broad high pressure. Expect clouds to increase over the region Thursday as a low pressure system slides to our south. Models have trended further north with the system but not appreciable enough to warrant increasing precip chances any higher than 20-30% across DelMarVa. Clouds clear Thursday night as the winds decouple and temps should fall rapidly especially west of the I95 corridor. Anticipate temps in the single digits for eastern PA and northwestern NJ. Winds become more southerly heading into Friday as modest warm air advection begins and the zonal flow aloft breaks down. High pressure crests over the weekend with no precip expected through Sunday afternoon. The next chance for showers arrives Monday as a surface low pressure system and vertically stacked cutoff upper level low form over the OK panhandle and dive south into the southern plains before lifting into the Mid Atlantic. Rainfall associated with northward moving warm front should start to impact the region as early as Monday afternoon but potentially as late as Tuesday morning given the spread in the medium ranged guidance. There's considerable agreement in a system forming however there's a lot to be desired in terms of intensity and timing. Brief high pressure returns behind that system in the form of an upper level ridge and then the rest of next week looks a bit more active. Dont get your hopes up too high but the EC and EC ensembles bring a clipper system through the region late in the week. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR conditions expected, with WNW/NW winds sustained 10- 15kts, gusting up to 20-25kts this afternoon. High confidence Tonight...VFR conditions expected with NW winds around 5 kts. High confidence. Outlook... Thursday through Thursday night...VFR ceilings with possible MVFR ceilings for RDG and ABE will give way to clearing skies Thursday night. Northwesterly winds will be 5-10kts with gusts up to 15kt during the predawn hours Friday. Friday through Sunday Night...VFR with northwesterly winds from 5 to 10 knots shifting to westerly Saturday and southwesterly by Sunday. High confidence. && .MARINE... Today...Seas are around 3 to 4 feet. NW wind gusts approaching 25 kts may be possible this morning, before dropping off to 15-20 kts later in the day. Tonight... Sub-SCA conditions expected with 2-3 ft seas and NW winds 10-15kts Outlook... Thursday...Northwest winds generally becoming northerly through the day. Speeds will generally be around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas generally 2 to 4 feet or less. Thursday night through Friday...SCA conditions expected with possible Gale force wind gusts overnight as northerly winds will become sustained 20 to 25kts with gusts up to 35kts possible during the predawn hours Friday morning. Seas 1-3 feet Thursday night increasing to 2-4 feet Friday. Friday night through Sunday...Below SCA conditions expected as seas subside to 1 to 3 feet and offshore winds remain 10 to 20kts diminishing by Sunday. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Deal Near Term...Carr/Meola Short Term...Carr Long Term...Deal Aviation...Carr/Deal Marine...Carr/Deal/Meola