067 FXUS61 KCLE 182025 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 325 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will push south across the region late tonight through early Wednesday. A large area of high pressure will build southeast from the northern Plains Wednesday to the southeast US Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The arrival of a prolonged stretch of quiet weather anticipated during the period, but not before two brief shots of lake effect snow for portions of the snowbelt early Wednesday and again late Wednesday night. Some breaks in the low clouds across the area possible this evening, but still went with a mostly cloudy forecast. Cloud cover should increase again late tonight as a secondary cold front swings south through the Great Lakes into the area tomorrow morning. Lake effect chances look incredibly marginal, with lake inversion heights topping out around 5kft during the morning, with moisture just deep enough to tap into some ice production. Went with mainly slight chance to chance pops through the morning, diminishing into the afternoon with a period of drier air. Any accumulation with be very light, mainly confined to higher elevations of NW PA. Clouds stick around for most of the day downstream of the lake and will remain into Wednesday night. A secondary trough and mid level vort max will dig south towards the area late Wednesday night. Falling 850mb temps will allow for inversion heights to creep back up to around 6 kft late in the overnight, with a little better moisture in the snow growth region, and consequently have low chance/slight chance pops for portions of the snow belt into Thursday morning. Lows tonight will be in the mid 20s. Highs Wednesday in the upper 20s/low 30s will be followed with lows in the upper teens Wednesday night. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Thursday begins high pressure centered over IA and covering the entire contiguous United States. Expecting sun to break out in the western counties but not completely convinced about the eastern counties and especially the snowbelt region as flow will be from off the lake. Temperatures at 850mb will range from -17 to -18C during the day as the NAM shows a trough swinging through the eastern lakes that will bring low level moisture into the area during the afternoon. Will have a chance of snow showers for extreme northeast OH and nwrn PA with the best chance in the afternoon. Thursday night through Saturday will keep dry with fair skies as the high builds across the region. Highs Thursday in the mid 20s, Friday low to mid 30s, and Saturday in the lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will continue to keep the region dry Saturday night into Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon models show a cold front moving through the western Great Lakes with low pressure moving through the Southern Plains. To our east, high pressure will be moving off the Carolina coast setting up a decent swly return flow through the Mississippi Valley into the region. Best moisture show on both the ECMWF and GFS to reach into the area Sunday evening/night with deep moisture and a good chance of rain/snow continuing Sunday night through Monday night and possibly into Tuesday as well. Highs Sunday through Tuesday mostly mid 40s. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/... MVFR stratus will be common across the terminals through the first part of the period as a cold front departs east away from the region. Some scattering of the stratus possible after 00Z for a brief time until a secondary front swings south through the region, with MVFR ceilings returning towards 12Z Wednesday. Some lake effect -SHSN possible at KERI, perhaps KYNG/KCLE after 12Z, but potential too low for TAF mention at this point. West winds behind the front will gust to around 25 kts before 00Z, then subside. Winds become more northwest during the second half of the period behind the secondary front. .OUTLOOK...Non-VFR lingers into Wednesday then expands again Wednesday night and Thursday. && .MARINE... Initially, this evening through the early overnight, winds and waves should begin to subside across the central lakeshore as low pressure over the southwest Quebec moves northeast. Considered dropping the small craft advisory north of Lorain and Cuyahoga counties but Wednesday, winds veer to northwest ahead of building high pressure exposing the area to more of a northwest flow that should bring waves back up to near 4 feet through the morning. Will therefore continue with the current small craft advisory as is with this forecast package. Headlines should come to an end however Wednesday afternoon as building high pressure relaxes the pressure gradient. High pressure will continue to build across the Great Lakes from the northern Plains through early Friday keeping winds under 15 knots. Late Friday and Friday night, the high drops into the Central Plains and lower Ohio Valley as low pressure moves across Hudson Bay. Will need to watch the pressure gradient between these two system across lake Erie. At this time winds are expected to increase from the west at 15 to 20 knots and will cause waves to approach 4 feet on the east half late Friday into Saturday. Waves will remain 10 to 20 knots from the southwest on Sunday as a cold front moves into the western lakes and the high fills the Mid Atlantic coast. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ147>149. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ145-146. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt NEAR TERM...Greenawalt SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...Greenawalt MARINE...TK