448 
FXUS64 KSJT 181024
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
424 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2020

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Early this morning, the cold front was located near a Brady to 
Sonora line. The front will be south of our area by 12Z. As a 
result, temperatures will be 25 to 35 degrees colder than 
yesterday. Highs will be mainly in the 50s. For tonight, low level
cold air advection will continue across the area. Lows will be 
mainly in the 30s to around 40. Going with slight chance to chance
Pops today and tonight southeast of an Ozona to Coleman line due 
to overrunning and weak upper level forcing. Also, expect patchy 
fog and drizzle this morning southeast of an Sonora to San Saba 
line. 

21

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Weekend)

No significant changes were needed for the long term portion of
the forecast. The main concern will be the colder temperatures and
rain expected from Wednesday through Thursday morning. 

Significant mid and upper moisture continues to stream over the 
area in west/southwest flow that will continue into Thursday. At 
the same time, northeast surface winds will continue through 
Thursday, reinforcing cold air at the surface. As shortwave energy
approaches in the west/southwest flow aloft on Wednesday, 850mb 
flow will turn around to the south, lifting warm, moist air up 
over the top of the cold surface air mass. Models continue to show
good agreement on timing of rain beginning during the morning 
hours Wednesday generally south of a Sterling City to Brownwood 
line, then spreading north of the I-20 corridor by Wednesday 
afternoon. Expect most of the precipitation to be in the form of 
rain, so will continue to keep the mention of thunder out of the 
forecast, but a rumble or two of thunder wouldn't be surprising. 
Most of West Central Texas should see decent rainfall, but 
chances decrease as you move north into Haskell and Throckmorton 
counties. Rainfall totals still look to be in the 0.5" to 1.5" 
range, with the heavier (1+ inch) amounts east of a Brownwood to 
Eden to Junction line. Most of the significant rainfall will occur
from late Wednesday morning through Wednesday night. A 
reinforcing shot of cold air will move into the area on Thursday, 
keeping temperatures cool, and possibly resulting in scattered 
light showers. Most of the rain will end by Thursday night. 

A warming trend is expected from Friday through next Monday as 
upper level ridging moves in over the area. Temperatures could 
warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s possible by Sunday. An upper 
level low will move through the southern Great Plains Sunday, but 
is not expected to yield much precipitation for our area, with 
most of the lift north of our area, and a dryline moving through 
cutting off low level moisture. 

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 50  35  47  35 /   5   5  60  70 
San Angelo 	 54  38  47  36 /  10  20  80  80 
Junction 	 60  39  50  38 /  30  40 100  80 
Brownwood 	 53  37  47  36 /  30  20  80  90 
Sweetwater 	 49  35  45  36 /   5   5  50  60 
Ozona      	 56  39  47  39 /  20  20  90  70 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$