451 FXUS62 KTAE 171939 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 239 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2020 .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Low clouds have struggled to dissipate today with overcast skies still covering most of the forecast area. Satellite imagery indicates a few breaks beginning to develop as of 18Z, but these will likely be short-lived as the low clouds redevelop by, or shortly after, sunset. Guidance is in good agreement on spreading fog across the area overnight. This will need to be monitored for potential dense fog advisory, especially south of I-10. North of I- 10, a few showers will develop late as a weak shortwave approached. .SHORT TERM [Tomorrow Through Wednesday Night]... In the upper levels, nearly zonal flow will be over the region with a ridge over the Gulf and a broad trough to the north. At the surface, a slow moving boundary will linger over AL/GA until it moves into the region Wednesday night and Thursday. A wet pattern is expected this week. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be in SW GA, SE AL and the Western FL Panhandle. Highs will be in the 70s. Lows will be near 60 tomorrow night then cooler Wednesday night in the upper 40s and 50s. .LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]... In the upper levels, a trough will be over the region until a ridge moves in Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will move through Thursday and Thursday night. High pressure and a cold, dry air mass will move into the region Friday. Saturday night into Sunday moisture will return as another system approaches. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Thursday and Thursday night with POPs of 50 to 80 percent for the region. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s through this weekend. && .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Tuesday] Vsbys have improved for all terminals and the low cigs are beginning to lift and break up. This trend will continue through the afternoon. Low cigs and IFR conditions will spread northwest through TLH and ECP after sunset and will remain in place for the overnight hours, while the other terminals should expect low cigs around midnight. Fog and low vsbys will develop for all terminals in the early morning hours. Conditions will improve to MVFR during the late morning and early afternoon tomorrow. && .MARINE... The wet pattern will continue through Thursday night. Southerly winds will become northerly Wednesday night. Northeasterly winds will increase on Thursday evening. A Small Craft Advisory is likely Thursday night through Friday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Low clouds will continue to be in place across the region today, with only a few breaks possibly developing. Light rain/drizzle is possible with plentiful moisture in place. Winds will remain light through today. With plenty of moisture in the area, there are no concerns for red flag conditions over the next several days. && .HYDROLOGY... Right now local rivers are in pretty good shape except for the Apalachicola near Blountstown that remains in flood stage due to upstream dam releases. The wet pattern will continue this week and we may see a few rivers reach minor flood stage late this week. Widespread flooding is not expected though. Rainfall totals up to 2 inches are possible in parts of SW GA and SE AL this week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 62 78 60 77 54 / 20 20 30 30 40 Panama City 63 74 63 76 58 / 10 30 40 20 30 Dothan 59 76 61 71 50 / 50 80 70 40 60 Albany 60 75 61 71 48 / 60 80 70 50 60 Valdosta 60 79 61 75 52 / 20 30 30 30 50 Cross City 61 81 60 80 58 / 0 0 10 20 10 Apalachicola 62 72 63 74 59 / 10 10 20 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Camp SHORT TERM...McD LONG TERM...McD AVIATION...Camp/Preito MARINE...McD FIRE WEATHER...Bunker HYDROLOGY...McD