498 FXUS65 KVEF 170350 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 750 PM PST Sun Feb 16 2020 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions are expected to continue through much of the coming week. Passing high clouds, above normal temperatures with periods of light breezes can be expected through Monday. Breezy northeast winds are expected overnight Monday into Tuesday afternoon behind a dry cold front. Slight chances for precipitation are possible next weekend for southeast portions of the region. && .UPDATE...Quiet, partly cloudy conditions expected to continue tonight through the overnight hours for southern Nevada with light winds. Hourly forecast looks to be on par tonight. No changes to the forecast needed. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...237 PM PST Sun Feb 16 2020/ .SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday. Besides the aforementioned moisture aided in by a jet streak resulting in mid to high clouds and some associated breezy northwest winds across mainly south-central NV and northern Inyo County today, expect mild conditions with above normal temperatures to continue. Northwest flow will continue Monday, keeping the door open for shortwaves to slide across the Great Basin region. Dry air will push in ahead of the next shortwave progged to sweep across northern UT Monday night. This will result in some passing high clouds tomorrow then breezy to gusty northeast winds behind a surface cold front expected to move through the region overnight Monday into Tuesday. Strongest winds look to be confined to eastern Lincoln, Clark and San Bernardino counties with enhancement due to funneling down the Colorado River Valley overnight Monday through Tuesday afternoon. As of right now, the winds look sub-wind advisory with highest gusts to 25-30 knots. There is the potential for a possible Lake Wind Advisory for the Lake Mead NRA zones, but considering current guidance is indicating highest winds will be fairly isolated to IFP and impacts associated should be short lived (from 12Z-21Z TUE) I am hesitant to say a Lake Wind is needed. Besides winds, temperatures will drop 5-7 degrees by Tuesday afternoon behind the frontal passage. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday. After shortwave #1, a weak piece of energy is expected break off of a shortwave and linger across northern NV under a building ridge on Wednesday. This feature won't impact much other than bring in some clouds and breezy winds. Beyond Wednesday, confidence in the forecast is low. Guidance continues to suggest that a deep trough will dig off the SoCal coast. Though, the actual evolution of the low (potentially becoming a closed low or being more of a progressive open wave) has been very inconsistent from model run- to-run as well as timing of this evolution. Ensemble guidance indicates the low closing off just off the SoCal coast then becoming an open wave over the southwest region. Overall, the details are still muddy, but there is the potential for precipitation at some point, across at least southern and eastern portions of the area next weekend. && .AVIATION...For McCarran...Typical light and diurnal winds are expected to remain through the rest of today, remaining below 7-8 knots. By Monday morning, north-northeast winds are expected to reach the Las Vegas Valley around 17-18Z with sustained winds to 10- 12 knots and occasional gusts to around 15-20 knots throughout the afternoon. Wind speeds will decrease by 01-02Z and become more southwesterly through Monday evening. Some low-level turbulence and possibly low-level wind shear can be expected Monday morning with the northerly push. Some passing mid to high clouds are expected through today and tomorrow, remaining aoa 12 kft. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Diurnal winds expected to continue at most terminals through today, with an exception at KBIH where breezy northwest winds with gusts to 25-30 knots will continue through the afternoon. By Monday morning, northerly winds will begin to spread across the region and increase through the afternoon with gusts to 20-25 knots possible. Some low-level turbulence can be expected as the northerly winds push south across the area along with passing mid to high clouds. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Varian DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Kryston For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter