971 
FXUS63 KIND 160840
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
330 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2020

.UPDATE...

The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 202 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2020

High pressure will bring dry weather and seasonable temperatures to 
central Indiana through tonight. Then, a cold front and upper system 
will bring mainly rain to the area through Tuesday. 

Dry but cold weather will return by mid week but warmer temperatures 
are on the horizon for next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 202 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2020

Good confidence in dry weather and near normal temperatures today 
under the influence of surface high pressure. Could see a few breaks 
in the cloud cover over northwestern sections today, otherwise and 
upper Dakotas wave will move across lower Michigan this afternoon. 
Could see some late day clearing per model rh time sections before 
more mid and high clouds move in tonight in fast zonal flow aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday through Tuesday night/...
Issued at 202 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2020

Models in good agreement that an upper wave will round the base of a 
broad north central trough on Monday forcing a cold front into the 
Mississippi Valley late in the day. Increasing moisture in southerly 
low level flow and strong isentropic lift on the 295K level supports 
precipitation chances Monday morning over western sections and 
widespread rain over all central Indiana Monday afternoon and night. 
Some snow could briefly mix in during the morning, otherwise look 
for all rain through Monday night as the cold front moves through. 

A trailing upper wave will move across Michigan on Tuesday. However, 
the rain is expected to end from northwest to southeast Tuesday and 
Tuesday evening. Some snow could briefly mix in Tuesday morning over 
northwestern parts. However, not expected any impacts from snow then 
or Monday morning.

Could see some breaks in the overcast Tuesday night as high pressure 
builds in. 

With southerly flow, above normal blend temperatures in the mid 40s 
to lower 50s look good Monday. Meanwhile, seasonable temperatures 
look good for Tuesday in the wake of the cold front.  

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/...
Issued at 305 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2020

The vast majority of the long term period will be dominated by a
large and strong dome of surface high pressure, on the order of
1040 millibars. This will keep the area dry and temperatures near
to below normal, at least through the first half of the period.

Models hint at a system impacting the area very late in the period
with mainly rain, although significant timing and placement issues
exist. Will stick with a blend while we wait for these issues to
resolve.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 160900Z IND TAF Update)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2020 

No changes needed to the TAF.

Previous discussion follows...

Issued at 1137 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

Upstream observations show VFR ceilings, and short term models have 
backed off MVFR forecasts, so have just gone VFR with ceilings 
overnight. KLAF may even clear out the lower VFR clouds for a while.

Gustiness at KIND should diminish by valid time. Can't rule out a 
sprinkle or flurry overnight, but no operational impact is expected.

By Sunday afternoon only high clouds are expected.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK 
NEAR TERM...MK 
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...50/MK