761 FXUS61 KBTV 152011 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 311 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move eastward tonight as a low pressure system tracks across eastern Canada. This will result in increasing clouds across the North Country tonight along with the chance for some snow showers, especially in the mountains. The increase in clouds will also allow temperatures to not be as cold tonight as last night. High temperatures on Sunday will also be warmer than the past couple of days with highs generally in the 30s. The next best chance for precipitation will come on Tuesday as a low pressure system tracks across the region and brings snow in the morning and a rain snow mix in the afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 311 PM EST Saturday...Starting to see the high move to our east this afternoon as flow aloft becomes more west and southwest with time. A shortwave trough will be moving out of the Upper Midwest tonight, but best forcing associated with this feature will track across eastern Canada. Even though the best forcing is north of the area tonight...moisture will be moving across the area and we should see some snow showers...especially in the mountains. Air mass is still relatively dry over the area and thus not expecting deep moisture to move in. This will result in snow accumulations generally ranging from a dusting to one inch across our area tonight. With the increase in clouds tonight and strengthening pressure gradient low temperatures will be early in the period, generally around 03z and will be slowly warming as the night wears on. Shortwave trough is well northeast of the area on Sunday and thus forcing will be limited. However, we remain in broad cyclonic flow aloft so cannot rule out the possibility of some snow showers during the day on Sunday. Highs on Sunday will be in the 30s. A cold front does move down across the area Sunday night and we could see an enhancement to the snow showers across the North Country during the first part of Sunday night. But as the front moves east later Sunday night drier air returns to the region and precipitation comes to an end. Not much in the way of deep moisture in advance of the cold front so looking at snow accumulations generally an inch or less once again. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 311 PM EST Saturday...A quiet day is in store for the North Country on Monday as surface high pressure builds into the North Country. With another push of arctic air following the cold front on Sunday, temperatures will struggle to warm into the lower to upper 20s even under what looks to be abundant sunshine. The latest guidance is now showing the surface high to be more robust than before (around 1032 mb) which should allow for some decent radiational cooling through around midnight before a developing low over the Great Lakes region displaces the high pressure overhead. Cloud cover will quickly build back into the region from the southwest Monday night with temperatures steadily warming as the clouds move overhead. A low pressure system will track from the Great Lakes region up through the St. Lawrence Valley on Tuesday with precipitation beginning to overspread the North Country by late morning. A warm front attached to this low pressure system will move into the North Country and help bring an initial burst of warm air advection snow to the region. This should generally lead to a quick 1-2 inches across the region from late morning through early afternoon. Warm air is going to quickly move into the Champlain and St. Lawrence valleys which will change snow over to rain while other locations now look to remain snow. Even though some locations may remain snow throughout the day on Tuesday, temperatures look to warm a few degrees above freezing which will limit accumulations through the afternoon hours. Downsloping wind signatures for the Champlain Valley are still there but may be a touch weaker than before as the models now have the pressure gradient more north/south oriented. Nevertheless, total liquid amounts will still be limited within the Champlain Valley due to some semblance of downsloping. Gusty winds will also develop on Tuesday with the departing high to our east and strengthening low to our west acting to increase our pressure gradient. The strongest winds will be seen through the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys with southerly gusts ranging from 25-35 mph. Precipitation will quickly end around midnight Tuesday as we head into Wednesday thanks to a strong 500 mb jet helping to push the system through. We could still see some lingering snow showers across the higher terrain with strong cold air advection in the mid- levels but elsewhere showers will be far and few. Temperatures Tuesday night will continue to be mild even with the cold air advection as cloud cover should keep us well insulated. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 311 PM EST Saturday...Quieter weather is in store for the second half of the week and this upcoming weekend with high pressure building across the region. We will see a dry cold front move through the region the day on Wednesday which will bring some well below normal temperatures back to the region for the Thursday and Friday timeframe before we warm back to near normal temperatures over the weekend. With deep layer ridging trying to develop toward next weekend, it's looking like chances for precipitation will remain NIL through the forecast period. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Ceilings will start to lower after 00z with broken to overcast conditions between 4000 and 5000 feet. In addition, there will be some snow showers between 04z and 12z but visibilities are expected to remain in the VFR category. Winds will be the main issue with low level wind shear developing at most locations between 00z and 12z with south to southwest winds at 2000 feet in the 35 to 45 knot range. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Washingtons Birthday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Definite SHSN, Definite SHRA. Tuesday Night: MVFR. Chance SHSN, Likely SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Evenson SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...Evenson