678 FXUS62 KTAE 151947 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 247 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2020 .NEAR TERM [Through Sunday]... Cloud cover will increase late tonight as a weak upper trough approaches the area. There appears to be sufficient lift and moisture for rain to develop rapidly after sunrise Sunday morning across the western portions of the area and move rapidly eastward through the day. Although measurable rain coverage is expected to be fairly widespread, amounts are expected to be mainly on the light side. With the lack of significant return flow, instability is expected to remain offshore and thunderstorms are not expected over land. High temperatures on Sunday will likely be held down by the cloud cover and rain across most of the area, ranging from the upper 50s across the northwest to the mid 70s across the southeast big bend where a bit more sunshine is expected. .SHORT TERM [Sunday night through Monday night]... Lingering deep layer moisture in conjunction with a weak surface frontal boundary and weak upper level support will keep a low chance of showers in the forecast through Monday night. This will certainly not be a washout, and most areas will remain dry for most of the time. However, a few passing showers cannot be ruled out in this environment. Highs are expected to be mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s with lows in the 50s and 60s. .LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]... Weak upper level shortwaves embedded in west-southwest flow aloft will continue to affect the area with a chance of showers each day across portions of the area through mid-week. The best chances appear to be on Tuesday through Thursday with a slight chance of thunderstorms as well on Tuesday as some instability returns to the area. However, severe weather is not expected at this time. A cold front is expected to finally push through the area on Thursday with rain chances coming to an end by Friday. A cooler airmass will return to the area temporarily behind this front at the end of the week. && .AVIATION... [Through 18z Sunday] VFR conditions with clear skies will prevail through the remainder of today and into tonight. Cloud cover will increase late tonight ahead of a weak disturbance. Ceilings are expected to lower into the MVFR to IFR range Sunday morning with showers increasing across the area from west to east. && .MARINE... Winds are expected to diminish tonight and generally remain 15 knots or less until late next week when a cold front moves through our area. Winds and seas will likely increase to advisory conditions behind this front at the end of the week, and gale force northerly wind gusts cannot be ruled out. && .FIRE WEATHER... Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days. && .HYDROLOGY... Total rainfall amounts for the next 7 days are expected to remain fairly modest with most areas seeing less than inch of rain. The exception may be across the northern portions of the forecast area where 1 to 2 inches looks more likely. The heaviest amounts are expected to fall across northern and central Georgia and Alabama. Area rivers are expected to remain elevated but mostly below flood stage. The Apalachicola River is currently in minor flood stage and is expected to slowly fall for the next several days, although it will likely remain in minor flood stage through much of the week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 49 63 55 73 61 / 0 70 50 20 30 Panama City 52 63 58 72 63 / 0 70 50 20 30 Dothan 45 59 52 71 60 / 0 70 20 20 60 Albany 47 59 51 69 60 / 0 70 20 20 50 Valdosta 49 64 54 72 61 / 10 70 20 20 30 Cross City 52 73 58 77 62 / 10 50 50 20 10 Apalachicola 54 64 59 70 64 / 0 70 50 20 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...DVD MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...DVD