098 FXUS65 KSLC 142312 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 412 PM MST Fri Feb 14 2020 .SYNOPSIS...An upper level trough moving east through the northern Rockies will push a dry cold front across northern Utah today. A stronger storm system will impact the region late in the weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12z Monday)...The shortwave trough to the north of Utah is pushing mid and high clouds into northern and central Utah this afternoon. Despite a weak cold front pushing through, the Salt Lake City airport temperature has warmed into the mid 50s this afternoon, more than 10 degrees above normal. Per the 12z KSLC RAOB this morning, warming at 700mb of 8C compared to just 24 hours ago was observed. This should turn the other direction by tomorrow morning with the weak cold front moving through today. Saturday should see very little change in the way of sensible weather compared to today, outside of a few degrees of cooling from the front today. We turn our focus to Sunday with the decaying atmospheric river moving inland into the PacNW and the 120kt upper level jet punching into the Great Basin late Saturday. The trough is quite elongated resulting in prolonged westerly flow ahead of the cold front expected to pass through later in the weekend. As moisture increases over the region under persistent westerly flow, warm advection will take place. This should help west-slope facing and warm advection favoring locations begin to see some precipitation. Under the relatively warmer air mass, snowlevels should remain higher for valleys keeping the snow in the mountains and rain for valleys as we head into Sunday. Models have continued to weaken this feature with less than ideal dynamics and lift, however timing has become a bit better organized among short term guidance. The jet will push through central Utah late Sunday night as the flow at 700mb begins to turn northwesterly. The colder airmass will begin to filter in as the best moisture profile begins to taper and move to the east. The valleys should begin to see rain change to snow overnight into early Monday while mountains begin to taper off later Monday. At this time, the impacts from this storm system will focus mainly on Sunday into Monday with mountain roads and passes seeing the most snow accumulation. Valley impacts will be mostly minor, with winter driving conditions from Brigham City northward into the Cache Valley. Mountain routes into the Wasatch Mountains can expect to be impacted early Sunday through Monday. .LONG TERM (After 12z Monday)...Global models and associated ensemble means are coming into better agreement for the Monday through Tuesday timeframe regarding the progression of the cold front. The going idea is that the front will be moving through southern Utah Monday morning before shifting south out of the area. Precipitation, mostly in the form of snow, will be focused more across central and portions of southern Utah in the morning. The snow will taper off across the south by Monday afternoon, but snow showers will redevelop across the north as the cold pool aloft moves across the area. Snow will taper off Monday evening as the airmass becomes drier and more stable with the upper trough exiting the area. This trough will be followed by a trailing vort max which will carve towards the south through Nevada, as it shears off from the main trough. Here, there is increased model spread as to how far back this vort max shears away from the trough, and whether it will split off into a cutoff low over the Great Basin Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Based on cluster analysis of GEFS, EPS, and Canadian ensemble members, solutions appear split across of spectrum of degrees of splittiness (if that is even a word). The main implications with the cutoff low, if that is what occurs, would be the potential for some moisture to be drawn into southern/southeastern Utah Thursday afternoon/evening. Otherwise, the mid to late week period will remain relatively quiet with a gradual warming trend. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will persist at the KSLC terminal through the TAF period. Northwest winds will make a late shift to the southeast after midnight tonight. Scattered mid and high clouds will remain above 7000ft through Saturday morning. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dewey LONG TERM/AVIATION...Cheng For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php