050 
FXUS65 KFGZ 140404
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
901 PM MST Thu Feb 13 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Quiet weather will continue through Sunday night. 
Daytime temperatures will warm to about ten degrees above normal 
by Sunday. A cold front will bring a slight chance of 
precipitation to the region Monday with cooler temperatures 
through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Northern Arizona to see dry weather through at least
Sunday night. From tonight through Saturday morning, a broad but 
weak trough aloft to slowly cross overhead. This feature to bring
in some mid and high level clouds on Friday. 500 mb heights lower and
mid level temps actually cool a degree or two over today, and may
keep Fridays max temps a little closer to todays. 

For the weekend, light northwest flow aloft arrives with warmer
air. Max temps are warming both days, with Sundays forecast highs
about 10 degrees above normal. Southwest winds 10-20 mph return
Sunday afternoon ahead of a cold front.

For Monday and Tuesday - Progs indicate a trough of low pressure 
to move through the Great Basin and push a mainly dry cold front
across northern Arizona. Gusty southwest to west winds and cooler
temperatures arrive Monday. There is a slight chance for rain and
snow showers over the Kaibab Plateau, Black Mesa and the Chuska 
mountains through Monday evening. Winds will shift to the north 
Monday night bringing continued cooling to our area Tuesday.

Wednesday Day 7 - model consenus is for weak trough to be 
somewhere over the Southwest U.S. We have a slight chance of 
precip Wednesday afternoon east of a line from Fredonia to Payson.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will prevail 
through the TAF period. Clear skies and light winds are expected for 
the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF 
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry and warm weather through the end of the 
week. Winds become breezy from the southwest on Friday afternoon. 

Saturday through Monday...Dry and warm weather continues through the 
weekend with breezy afternoon winds. A weather disturbance will 
bring a slight chance of showers, and cooler temperatures on Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...DL


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff