203 FXUS62 KTAE 131905 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 205 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2020 .NEAR TERM [Rest of Today and Tonight]... A line of showers and a few thunderstorms is moving east of Tallahassee as of 2PM and about to get to Valdosta in about an hour or two. The surface front is moving along with it with the winds shifting to the northwest. It's gusty ahead of the front, 25-30 MPH at times but will lessen slightly behind it. Scattered rain showers will continue overnight behind the front until the upper trough can sweep through. Severe weather isn't expected. Lows will range from the lower 40s in SE Al to upper 50s in the Big Bend. .SHORT TERM [Friday through Saturday Night]... The surface cold front will be well to our south Friday morning but the upper trough will still be to the north and west. Showers will linger through the early morning especially in areas east of Tallahassee. Surface winds will already be northwesterly but aloft they won't shift until the trough moves through, bringing cooler and drier air. Friday highs will be in the low to mid 60s. With clear skies Friday night, lows will be much colder, in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Surface high pressure takes over on Saturday with a beautiful day- light winds, clear skies and highs in the mid to upper 60s with lows in the mid to upper 40s. .LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]... A weak shortwave moves through on Sunday with both forecast extremes being represented in guidance, from completely dry to 100% pops. NBM is leaning towards a wetter solution. With the shortwave being fairly weak and with not a lot of moisture to work with, the ECMWF might be slightly overdone. Lowered the blended pops slightly to account for this. Multiple shortwaves will move south to north over the area as the upper level ridge builds north over the area. This will lead to scattered showers throughout the week. A front will move through on Wednesday with the GFS moving it all the way through and the ECMWF stalling it. But that's too far out for more details at this time. Temps will be on a warming trend from the mid 60s on Sunday to near 80 Tue/Wed and falling again Thu. && .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Friday] CIGS are bouncing all over the place today even behind the front. All but ECP should settle around 2kft-3kft this evening and eventually scatter out by Friday morning. Winds will also be gusty ahead of the line and for a few hours behind it before shifting northwest around 10 knots. On and off rain showers will occur at the terminals through the early evening with skies clearing Friday morning. && .MARINE... Small craft should exercise caution tonight and Friday with winds remaining around 15 to 20 knots with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Winds and seas decrease through the weekend, settling to 10 to 15 knots by the beginning of the next week. Showers will continue tonight with dry weather Friday and Saturday and rain returning again Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Shower activity is expected to persist through the evening hours tonight, but a period of drier weather will move into the region Friday afternoon through Saturday. Red Flag conditions are not expected for the foreseeable future. High dispersions are expected in Dixie and Lafayette counties on Saturday. No fog is expected over the next several days. && .HYDROLOGY... Most rivers have already crested with only the Choctawhatchee and parts of the Apalachicola still in minor flood. However, both are forecast to fall. Previous rainfall up north will cause a very slight rise to some downstream rivers again in the next few days but none are expected to go back into flood stage. Rainfall from the front today should be less than 1 to 2 inches with light showers overnight. There are no flood concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 49 64 38 67 44 / 60 20 0 0 10 Panama City 50 63 42 66 49 / 50 10 0 0 20 Dothan 43 60 36 62 43 / 10 0 0 0 20 Albany 45 60 36 61 42 / 30 10 0 0 10 Valdosta 49 63 38 65 44 / 70 20 0 0 0 Cross City 56 66 42 70 47 / 50 30 0 0 0 Apalachicola 52 62 43 63 50 / 70 20 0 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LN SHORT TERM...LN LONG TERM...LN AVIATION...LN MARINE...LN FIRE WEATHER...Bunker HYDROLOGY...LN