651 FXUS61 KBTV 121139 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 639 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High presssure will build into the area today with partly sunny and seasonably mild temperatures. Low pressure passing to our immediate south will bring a period of light to moderate snows late tonight into Thursday during which modest travel impacts can be expected. Much colder air arrives behind this system for Thursday night into Saturday before temperatures moderate once again by early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 639 AM EST Wednesday...The forecast remains on track as we head toward the sunrise hour with only noise-level changes needed. Have a great day! Prior discussion... Generally quiet weather is expected for today as high pressure bridges east from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley states. Variable morning clouds and lingering mountain snow showers will give way to partial/full sunshine by this afternoon as the high center moves overhead. High temperatures to continue on the seasonably mild side in the 30s under modest west to southwest flow. By tonight well advertised low pressure will streak northeastward from the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valley region, passing across southern New England on Thursday. This system will bring widespread light to moderate snows to the region, begining late tonight south, then across the entire area on Thursday. This will be a relatively minor, nuisance-type mid-winter event with 12-18 hour totals averaging from 3-6 inches across the SLV, Dacks and the higher elevations of the Greens where Winter Wx Advsys are now in effect. Somewhat lighter totals from 2-4" are expected in the Champlain Valley, far northeastern VT and the valleys of southern VT. Complicating factors affecting eventual snow totals will be marginal boundary layer temperatures in the central/southern VT valleys and mid level drying across southern VT in general where some mix with light rain or patchy drizzle is certainly possible on Thursday. Temperatures tonight to mainly range through the 20s under thickening cloud cover, then 30 to 35 north and 32 to 37 south for highs on Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 302 AM EST Wednesday...Aforementioned coastal low pressure will be quickly racing off into the Canadian maritimes Thursday night with lingering low level moisture and blocked northwest flow allowing snow showers to persist across northern zones for a few hours into the evening. We should see activity quickly diminish in areal coverage though by midnight as strong high pressure begins to shift over the Great Lakes. Additional accumulations through the evening should only be in the dusting to 2 inch range. For the rest of the night and through Friday night the focus turns towards a return of arctic temperatures as a 1030mb high traverses the forecast area with 925mb temps falling as low as -25C Friday morning, and only slightly warming to around -20C by early Saturday. Lingering cloud cover Thursday night will temper radiational cooling despite strong cold air advection with lows generally in the single digits below zero across the central/north and single digits above south. Temps will struggle to warm out of the single digits above zero Friday despite clearing skies, with Friday night the coldest night of the stretch with lows ranging from -10F to -20F and potentially colder. Unclear on the amount of wind present during Friday night as high pressure begins to shift east of the region and its impact on the potential for wind chill headlines across mainly northern New York. Something we'll have to monitor over the next several days. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 302 AM EST Wednesday...Pick of the weekend will be Saturday as high pressure is exiting off the eastern seaboard and a light southerly return flow will help to rebound chilly morning temperatures well below zero into the upper teens to mid 20s for highs in the afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase through the day ahead of a weak northern stream trough which will increase chances for some light rain and snow showers on Sunday with temperatures moderating further into the low/mid 30s on gusty south/southwest flow. Brief high pressure returns for Monday with temps dropping back into the 20s, but this is short-lived as strong southwesterly flow returns Monday night ahead of our next system where current indications are for low pressure to track northwest of the region on Tuesday. Could be a messy one with some mixed precipitation at the onset and valleys changing to rain in the afternoon as surface temps rise into the upper 30s. Time will tell where the storm tracks which will ultimately define what ptypes we see. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR through 06Z Thursday as high pressure builds into the region, then moves east allowing low pressure to approach from the southwest. SCT/BKN cigs mainly in the 035-060 AGL range expected through 16Z, trending SCT/SKC for a brief period early this afternoon before thickening high clouds move in from mid afternoon into early evening. Winds generally west/southwesterly 5 to 10 kts during this period. After 00Z clouds thicken and lower with light snows arriving from southwest to northeast in the 07-10Z time frame as conditions lower to IFR at all terminals. Winds trending south/southwesterly from 4-8 kts by late this afternoon/early evening, abating to less than 5 kts later tonight as snow arrives. Outlook... Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SN, Chance SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Thursday for VTZ003-006-008-016-017. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Thursday for VTZ010-018-019. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Thursday for NYZ026>031-034-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...JMG