432 FXUS62 KMLB 052037 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 336 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2020 .DISCUSSION... ...Deteriorating Marine Conditions Late Tonight into Thursday and early Friday... ...Windy with Near Record Warmth Thursday... ...Slight Risk of Severe Storms Thursday Night and Early Friday... Current-Tonight...A weak sea breeze is again moving slowly inland across the Space/Treasure coasts this afternoon. Again, many fire plumes are visible on radar imagery. Unseasonably warm temperatures well into the 70s and L80s this afternoon. Dewpoint values in the L- M60s are also unusually high for this time of year. High pressure will continue to pull seaward in advance of an approaching strong cold front. Southerly winds will remain elevated tonight 5-10 mph interior and 10-15 mph along the immediate Space/Treasure coasts as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the front. Southerly winds at 925 mb increase to 30-35 kts above the surface tonight. Still expecting mainly dry conditions tonight, though as moisture increases across the area clouds will continue to increase in coverage and depth. Mild lows overnight in the 60s areawide. Thursday...A very warm day on tap with near record warmth forecast as already warm temperatures at sunrise (60s) are forecast to only soar higher into the M80s areawide (see Climate section below). With these temperatures and elevated dewpoints, we can expect heat indices in the U80s to around 90F for most places. A very strong wind field (surface/aloft) will approach with this system so as the pressure gradient tightens our surface winds will average 20 to 25 mph with frequent higher gusts in excess of 30 mph, and most likely to 35 to 40 mph. This is Wind Advisory criteria and future shifts will be strongly urged to hoist one for during the day. 925 mb winds just above the surface will be 35-40 kts. Can't rule out a passing or stray shower during the day across ECFL, especially near/north of I-4, though the "big show" will be Thu night. A cold front will move through the FL Panhandle and parts of north FL during the day. A line of strong to severe storms will develop out ahead of it extending southward into the central/western GoM by early evening. Thu Night-Fri...Breezy to windy south-southwest winds will continue into Thursday evening, ahead of an approaching prefrontal squall line that will cross the area into Thursday night. Deepening moisture, increasing unidirectional wind fields, and strong forced ascent aloft will favor strong to potential severe straight line winds as this line moves through east central Florida. However, embedded isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out along the line as well. Exact arrival time of this squall line still somewhat uncertain, as model guidance varies, but currently looks like leading edge will initially move into Lake/Volusia counties toward late evening, and shifting quickly eastward through east central Florida overnight. Showers and storms should then exit the Treasure Coast near to just after sunrise Friday. Trending drier and cooler then into Friday afternoon behind the cold front with temperatures only able to recover into the mid-upper 60s from Brevard/Osceola County northward and low 70s along the Treasure Coast. Modified Previous Discussion... Saturday-Sunday...High pressure building in over Florida on Saturday and then the southeast U.S. on Sunday will offer a nice weekend. Dry air and subsidence will keep everyone rain free on Saturday, but enough low-level moisture returns northward on Sunday to warrant a slight shower chance for Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast. Max temps upper 60s to low 70s Saturday and low to mid 70s on Sunday. Monday-Wednesday...A period of above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather is shaping up with the global models keeping the surface ridge axis draped across or just north of east central Florida providing southeast to southerly winds each day. Mid-level air looks pretty dry at the moment, but low-level moisture may be sufficient to develop isolated showers during the afternoon hours. Max temps upper 70s/near 80 on Monday, low 80s on Tuesday, and low to mid 80s on Wednesday. && .AVIATION...Mainly VFR tonight into Thu. Southerly flow increases ahead of an approaching strong cold front. Low level wind shear (LLWS) already inserted in many TAF sites for late tonight as winds increase steadily above the surface. Windy/gusty conditions at the surface areawide for Thu with sustained speeds of 15-23kts out of the south with frequent gusts over 30kts possible. Winds remain breezy/gusty Thu night as they gradually veer to the SW/WSW with the approach of the front. The potential for a fairly strong squall-line is forecast Thu night into early Fri morning ahead of the aforementioned front. Showers and storms will last for 1-2 hours at any particular site. Threats include damaging straight-line winds, lightning, an isolated tornado, and heavy downpours. && .MARINE...Wed afternoon-Thu...High pressure ridging continues to pull further seaward into the western Atlc with the approach of a strong low pressure system. Southerly winds will continue to increase to 15 to 20 knots this evening and overnight; 20 to 25 kts well offshore the Volusia coast by daybreak Thu morning. Seas around 2 ft will continue to build overnight toward daybreak to 3-4 ft near shore and 4-5 ft well offshore late. We begin a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) offshore at 09Z/4AM Thu and then 15Z/10AM near shore Thu morning. A Gale Watch is in effect for offshore marine legs beginning at 18Z/1PM Thu afternoon. Boating conditions will become hazardous areawide on Thu with southerly winds continuing to increase ahead of the cold front. Expect winds near shore to increase to 20-25 kts with frequent higher gusts and perhaps occasionally to Gale Force by late Thu. By afternoon, winds will increase over the Gulf Stream to 25-30 kts with frequent higher gusts (forecast) to Gale Force. Seas will continue to build slowly to 6 to 9 feet offshore/Gulf Stream and 5 to 6 feet near shore. Thursday Night-Friday...Strong southerly flow Thursday evening will become W/SW into Thursday night/early Friday as a cold front and preceding band of strong to potentially severe storms pushes quickly offshore and across the waters. These conditions will produce hazardous to dangerous boating conditions through much of this period, with a Small Craft Advisory nearshore and Gale Watch offshore through Friday morning. Once front pushes through the area, west-northwest winds will gradually diminish, from late Friday into Friday night with seas decreasing. However, SCA headlines will continue offshore through at least Friday afternoon. Saturday-Monday...Weak high pressure ridge near to north of the area, will lead to more favorable boating conditions into the Saturday, with onshore winds 5-10 knots and seas 2-4 feet. However, into late weekend and through Monday, onshore winds will briefly increase to 15-20 knots with seas building to 5-6 feet, leading to poor boating conditions toward the end of the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... ***Prescribed Burning on Thursday is HIGHLY/STRONGLY Discouraged*** High pressure continues to pull seaward into the western Atlc, though conditions remain mainly dry through tonight and possibly for much of the day on Thu. Deepening southerly flow will promote RHs above critical thresholds. Higher temperatures and Generally Good dispersion this afternoon becoming EXCELLENT for Thu. Windy/gusty (S/SSW) conditions develop Thu (Wind Advisory likely) which could be a nuisance to ongoing/smoldering burns with continuation of gusty environmental winds Thu night. Expect surface winds on Thu to approach 20 to 25 mph with frequent gusts over 30 mph and likely to 35 to 40 mph at times as stronger winds above the surface mix down. Near record highs forecast in the middle 80s for Thu. A strong cold front approaches Thu night, ahead of it a potential squall line with strong to severe storms expected. Damaging straight-line winds, locally heavy downpours, lightning, and/or a tornado or two will be the main threats. The storms should clear Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast Fri morning. Cooler/drier W/NW flow will filter down the peninsula behind the front on Fri. && .CLIMATE... Selected Records for Thursday Feb 6th LOC DATE HI-MAX HI-MIN DAB 6-Feb 86 2008 68 2004 LEE 6-Feb 85 2004 67 2004 SFB 6-Feb 85 2004 69 1982 MCO 6-Feb 89 1923 67 1982 MLB 6-Feb 87 2008 70 2004 VRB 6-Feb 89 1943 70 2004 FPR 6-Feb 88 1985 72 1957 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 64 85 58 66 / 0 20 80 10 MCO 66 85 61 67 / 0 20 80 20 MLB 68 85 62 69 / 10 20 80 30 VRB 69 85 64 71 / 0 10 80 50 LEE 65 84 59 66 / 0 20 80 10 SFB 65 86 60 66 / 0 20 80 10 ORL 66 85 61 67 / 0 20 80 10 FPR 67 85 63 71 / 0 10 80 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm- Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm. Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm- Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. && $$ Sedlock/Weitlich