011 FXUS66 KSGX 021702 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 902 AM PST Sun Feb 2 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through Southern California tonight, bringing strong gusty west winds, light precipitation, and cooler weather. Dry conditions will return by Monday morning, but cooler temperatures will linger through Wednesday morning. Low temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will be near or below freezing in wind- sheltered areas in the valleys. Winds will turn offshore after the passage of the front Monday morning. Temperatures will return to near normal for the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Satellite this morning shows mostly clear skies with low clouds over the coastal waters, and locally along the Orange County coast. Temperatures today will be lower than they were yesterday west of the mountains. Highs along the coast will be in the upper 60s, the valleys and high desert will see highs in the 70s, the low desert will reach the 80s, and mountain areas will be in the low 60s. Locally dense fog will occur along the immediate coast this morning. A coastal eddy will strengthen throughout the day, helping to lift cloud bases. Clouds will become more widespread over land as the front approaches this afternoon and evening. This front will bring light precipitation over and west of the mountains as well as gusty west winds to the mountains, deserts, and coastal waters. Over land, gusts up to 65 mph are possible, with the strongest winds expected near the desert foothills and through the San Gorgonio Pass. A High Wind Warning remains in effect through Monday morning. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the coastal waters, please see the marine discussion for more information. Precipitation totals for this storm are expected to be light. A few hundredths to locally a tenth of an inch of rain is expected. Less than an inch of snow is expected in the mountains, except the Santa Ana mountains where no snow is expected. A cold air mass will be left behind after the front passes. High temperatures on Monday will be well below average and up to 25 degrees cooler than highs on Saturday. Low temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will reach near or below freezing in wind sheltered locations in the valleys and could drop to below 20 degrees in portions of the high desert. Winds will quickly turn offshore Monday morning, increasing in strength through the day. Winds will mostly be coming out of the north to northeast, keeping the windiest locations to the coastal slopes and foothills of the San Bernardino and Santa Ana mountains. Gusty winds have the potential to reach portions of the Inland Empire and inland Orange County. Current guidance shows winds weakening and turning slightly onshore Wednesday evening. The latter half of the week will see warmer weather, relative the the beginning of the week, the return of low clouds, and lighter winds. Global ensembles are continuing to show another cold low pressure system making its way into Southern California February 9- 10. While it is still early and guidance could change significantly, it looks like this system has the potential to bring rain and mountain snow to the area. && .AVIATION... 021630Z...Low clouds, with bases around 300 ft MSL and tops to 600 ft MSL, developed near the coast over the waters and into portions of coastal Orange County this morning. Stratus will likely linger along the coast today before pushing inland this evening. Tops and bases will rise later today to around 1000-2000 ft MSL as a system approaches the area and a coastal eddy develops. Mostly clear with unrestricted VIS is expected for inland areas through this afternoon. -SHRA will move across the area this evening through Monday morning, mainly over and west of the mountains. VIS and ceilings will lower at times in showers. Coastal mountain slopes will become obscured in clouds this evening and overnight. West to Southwest winds strengthening in the afternoon will create sfc gusts 40-55 kt along the mountain ridges, desert mountain slopes, and locally into the deserts through Sunday night. STG-SVR UDDFS likely over and east of the mountains, with areas of LLWS and rotors in the deserts, including near KPSP. Winds will then switch northeasterly, creating gusts of 35-50 kt along coastal mountain slopes and into adjacent valleys and through mountain passes, mainly in San Bernardino, Orange and Riverside Counties Monday morning and diminish slightly in the afternoon. LLWS and mountain waves are expected for the areas, as well. && .MARINE... Northwest winds will strengthen late this afternoon, and peak tonight with sustained winds of 25 to 30 kts and gusts to 40 kts. Strongest winds will be in the outer coastal waters. Winds will weaken Monday morning with local gusts to 20 kts possible throughout the day. The strong NW winds will result in very high seas this evening into Monday. Seas of 11 and 15 feet in the inner waters and 15 and 20 feet in the outer waters are possible, with a period of 12 seconds. A Gale Warning remains in effect from 2 PM today through noon Monday. The strong winds and high seas with generate very hazardous boating conditions, capable of damaging and capsizing vessels. && .BEACHES... A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect until 5 AM Tuesday for elevated surf of 4-6 ft and localized sets to 7 ft and strong rip currents. Highest sets are expected in southern San Diego County. Though waves are not expected to be significantly large, the amount of water moving in due to strong winds and associated swell may result in flooding of low-lying beach areas and parking lots, along with minor beach erosion. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to noon PST Monday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning. Beach Hazards Statement through late Monday night for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. PZ...Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to noon PST Monday for Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 30 nm-Waters from San Mateo point to the Mexican Border Extending 30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island. && $$ PUBLIC...CO/Maxwell AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT