253 FXUS62 KTAE 020749 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 249 AM EST Sun Feb 2 2020 .NEAR TERM [Through Today]... Surface high pressure centered out over the Gulf will build north today as an upper trough moves east off the east coast. Northwest flow and a building ridge keeps the area dry with clear skies today with temps warming up into the lower to upper 60s. .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]... In the upper levels, a ridge will be over the region. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Gulf will move out by Tuesday as a broad area of low pressure develops to the northwest near TX/OK stretching to the TN River Valley. Moisture will return to the region on Tuesday ahead of this system as southerly flow increases in the lower levels. POPs will be near zero until Tuesday afternoon when some showers may sneak into the northwesternmost counties. Temps will be warming up with highs in the 70s. Lows will be in the lower 40s tonight and upper 40s and lower 50s tomorrow night. .LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]... In the upper levels, a ridge will be over the region until a trough approaches on Wednesday night or Thursday. At the surface, increasing moisture will bring showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night. Another round of thunderstorms is likely when the front moves through on Thursday. It looks like there will be potential for severe weather since deep layer shear looks very high. It is too early to accurately predict timing and therefore instability. Highs will be in the 70s Wednesday and Thursday, then 50s and 60s Friday and Saturday. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s, then 40s late in the week after frontal passage. && .AVIATION... [Through 06Z Monday] VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds increase slightly this afternoon but settle back to calm after sunset. && .MARINE... Northwesterly winds will continue to decrease this morning. The Small Craft Advisory will expire early this morning. By this afternoon winds will be light. Southerly winds will return by Monday, then increase by Wednesday ahead of the next system. && .FIRE WEATHER... Minimum RH values today will be in the 30% range but will rise again on Monday. With high transport winds and mixing heights near 3000ft, dispersion values rill range from 70-80 both today and Monday. There are no fire weather concerns. No fog is forecast. && .HYDROLOGY... A cold front will bring high rain chances to the area Wednesday and Thursday. This will result in 1-3 inches of rainfall with isolated higher amounts. While overall the region can handle these values, a few rivers could reach action stage. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 66 41 73 50 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 62 51 70 58 72 / 0 0 0 0 10 Dothan 64 42 72 53 72 / 0 0 0 0 20 Albany 64 40 71 50 71 / 0 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 63 40 73 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 63 42 72 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 63 50 68 56 70 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ early this morning for Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...LN SHORT TERM...McD LONG TERM...McD AVIATION...LN MARINE...McD FIRE WEATHER...LN HYDROLOGY...Fieux