281 FXUS61 KAKQ 011948 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 248 PM EST Sat Feb 1 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will cross the region tonight. High pressure builds in from the Gulf States Sunday and Monday. A weak frontal boundary moves north of the area Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 245 PM EST Saturday... The upr level trof and sfc cold front will cross the area this eve, then push offshore after midnite. Models show the best chc for measurable pcpn will be north of I64 thru 06Z, continuing across the ern shore areas thru about 09Z. In addition, radar trends show some light rain creeping nne along the NC coast attm. Some of this may make it into sern VA/ne NC this eve given the abundant low level moisture. Will cont with chc PoPs except likely across the ern shore. Decreasing clouds west late. Lows in the 30s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 245 PM EST Saturday... Yet another unseasonably mild period ahead early this week as high pres across the GOM extends ne. Models do show a lee trof dvlpng, but no pcpn along it due to downsloping WSW winds. Thus, expect mstly sunny days and fair nights ahead. Highs Sun in the 50s, lows Sun nite upr 30s to mid 40s. Warm and dry Mon with highs in the mid 60s to lwr 70s except lwr 60s at the beaches. RH values dropping to btwn 30-35 percent across the Piedmont. These readings are below the record highs for the date. See CLI section below. Clouds increase across the west Mon nite ahead of the next systm apprchg from the west. Dry with lows 45-50. Models show an H85 front lifting nne across the mts Tue. Best moisture progged nw of the local area but will keep chc PoPs in btwn 12Z-18Z then shifting to the north in the aftrn. Still warm with highs in the 60s except mid-upr 50s across the ern shore. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 245 PM EST Saturday... An unsettled pattern to begin the period. A deep trough over the western US will progress eastward on Wednesday and Thursday. Ahead of the trough a stationary boundary will stretch from the deep south up through the OH/TN valley and over to the Mid-Atlantic, with weak waves of low pressure along the boundary. This will result in deep layered southerly flow in WAA across the area, with increasing rain chances for Wednesday through early Friday before a cold front associated with a low pressure system in the Great Lakes will bring a temporary end to the precip mid day Friday into early Saturday. Rain chances increase again late Saturday into Sunday as a weak shortwave crosses the OH valley and Mid-Atlantic. Temps remain well above average during this period. Wednesday and Thursday will be the warmest days with highs in the 60s to lower 70s, and low temps in the upper 40s to 50s. Temps on Friday and Saturday will remain above normal despite the cold frontal passage, with high temps in the 50s to lower 60s SE. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1230 PM EST Saturday... CIGS vary from IFR to VFR across the area due to several features affecting the region attm. Abundant low level moisture behind the departing ocean low is keeping a stratus deck at ORF/ECG/PHF while MVFR/VFR CIGS were noted at RIC/SBY due to weak subsidence behind the departing low. Expect the IFR ST to at ORF lift into MVFR over the next few hrs. Otw, CIGS will cont to vary as the upr level systm and trailing cold front cross the local area tonite. The best chc for shwrs with this feature will be at SBY, otw no pcpn other than a stray shwr psbl. NNE wind aob 10 kts shift to the W tonite/Sun. Outlook... High pressure builds in from the west Sunday into Monday. Cloud cover increases Tuesday ahead of an apprchg frontal bndry, but VFR conditions are expected at this time. && .MARINE... As of 245 PM EST Saturday... A low pressure continues to move away from the east coast, east of Cape Hatteras. As a result, winds have come down early this afternoon to less than 10 kts in the bay and 10-15 kt across the ocean coastal waters. A small craft advisory remains in effect for areas south of the VA/NC Border for seas around 5ft. A trough will cross the region tonight with weak cold air advection. West winds will increase to 15 to 20 kt over the coastal waters and up to 15 kt in the bay. There will be a brief period of small craft conditions at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay Sunday morning. However, opted out of issuing a SCA. Winds gusts will be marginal and only for a brief period during the morning. Another trough of low pressure passes across the region later on Sunday. This will allow winds to once again turn to the SW and increase to close to SCA criteria in the lower bay and the coastal waters. SCA may be needed Sunday night at the across the mouth and southern portion of the Chesapeake Bay, winds may be slightly stronger than tonight. Broad high pressure will center itself off the southeast coast for early next week, with a large area of low pressure developing over the plains. This will allow for persistent southwest flow for the early to middle parts of next week. This plains low pressure system will impact the area by Thu/Fri, possibly bringing southerly SCA conditions for the entire waters. && .CLIMATE... Record highs for Feb 3rd: RIC...77 in 1989 ORF...81 in 1989 SBY...73 in 1939 ECG...82 in 1989 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...CMF AVIATION...MPR MARINE...CP CLIMATE...AKQ