485 
FXUS64 KAMA 011126
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
526 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2020

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 12Z
Sunday. West to southwest winds 5 to 15 knots are expected at all
three TAF sites through 12Z Sunday.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 242 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2020/ 

SHORT TERM...Today and tonight
A dry northwesterly upper flow will prevail across the Panhandles
today with shortwave ridging building in over the forecast area 
tonight. Surface trough will develop across eastern Colorado and 
eastern New Mexico today and will push into the northwestern 
Panhandles tonight. Downsloping westerly to southwesterly surface 
flow expected today through tonight under mainly clear skies.

Schneider

LONG TERM...
A lee-side surface low will develop and strengthen across eastern 
Colorado on Sunday.  This will help to tighten the pressure gradient 
across the Panhandles which will increase the winds up to at least 
20 mph with higher gusts.  These southwest winds will help to warm 
temperatures into the 70's.  Meanwhile an upper level trough will be 
moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest.

A Canadian air mass with its origin from northwest Canada will push 
through the northern half of the Panhandles on Monday.  This air 
mass will be pushing south and southwestward under an increasing 
southwest flow aloft as the now upper level closed low moves through 
Utah. It will be a tricky temperature forecast for Monday as this 
cold Canadian air mass moves south.  There could be quite a gradient 
in temperature across the region from north to south if the front 
does not push through the whole area by late afternoon.

If the front is not through the entire area by Monday afternoon, it 
will quickly move south of the Texas Panhandle shortly after sunset. 
 
Mid and upper level moisture will increase in association with the 
upper level low as it pushes through eastern Utah and western 
Colorado Monday night. The upper level low will move through 
Colorado from Monday night through Wednesday morning.  

The air mass will be cold enough to support mostly snow with this 
system.  The upper level low will not take a very favorable track 
for us to get too much precipitation.  But, some models suggest that 
there may still be some instability in the southern side of the 
positively tilted trough that may help to keep the precipitation 
chances going through Wednesday morning.

Low level moisture will be lacking with this system, so 
precipitation amounts are expected to remain on the low side for 
now.  However, things could change as this system moves into the 
upper air network on Monday and it becomes better sampled.

At this time, it looks like snow will start in the northwest Monday 
evening and then it will slowly spread southeast with time until it 
finally ends in the southeast Wednesday morning.  Thinking is that 
any snowfall accumulations will be light with amounts under an inch. 
It will be basically whatever the cold air mass can squeeze out.

This upper level storm system moves east of the Panhandles by 
Wednesday night and temperatures should recover to above normal by 
Friday as upper level heights rise.

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible on Sunday in the 
western Oklahoma Panhandle and parts of the southern Texas 
Panhandle.  20 foot winds will be approaching 20 mph with RH's below 
15 percent.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

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