133 FXUS63 KDDC 011118 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 518 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2020 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 1203 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2020 Tranquil conditions continue today and tonight as an upper level ridge breaks down while moving across the Intermountain West into the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a drier air mass in the lower/mid levels will continue to dominate the region. As for temperatures, an ongoing warming trend will go uninterrupted today as a westerly downslope flow draws warmer air through the high plains of eastern Colorado into western Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures up a little above 10C. Under plenty of sunshine, widespread 60s(F) can be expected this afternoon with a few mid/upper 50s(F) possibly holding on in areas of lingering snowpack. Highs reaching 70F cannot be ruled out in locations near and along the Colorado border. Look for lows down into the 30s(F) tonight. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1255 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2020 The prevailing dry pattern will continue Sunday as a westerly flow aloft persists across the Western High Plains to finish out the weekend. Precip chances return to western Kansas Monday night into Tuesday as medium range models indicate a deepening upper level trough digging southeast across the Great Basin into the Four Corners Region, setting up in an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft through the Western High Plains. As the approaching winter storm system moves into the Central/Southern Rockies late Monday night into early Tuesday, snow chances pick up a little in portions of western Kansas. However, it is still too early to determine what general track the storm will take, not to mention potential snow amounts. A developing and deepening surface low in eastern Colorado Sunday will set up a south-southwest flow across the high plains of western Kansas, enhancing warm air advection in the region with H85 temperatures pushing up near 20C. As a result, well above normal temperatures are likely Sunday afternoon with widespread highs in the 70s(F). Colder air will surge into western Kansas in wake of a strong cold frontal passage bringing and end to the unseasonably warm temperatures in western Kansas. Depending on the timing of the front, a wide range of temperatures may be possible with highs as low as the 30s(F), to the 40s(F)...and possibly the 50s(F) ahead of the front in south central Kansas. Much colder temperatures are likely Tuesday with medium range models showing H85 temperatures plummeting well below 0C to near 10C below. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 517 AM CST Sat Feb 1 2020 VFR conditions will prevail in the vicinity of all TAF sites through late this evening. Westerly winds 5 to 15kt will persist through late morning as a weak lee side trough of low pressure continues to slowly develop in eastern Colorado. Winds may increase somewhat this afternoon with daytime heating. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 58 33 72 31 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 63 31 72 28 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 67 33 75 33 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 62 30 72 32 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 65 35 74 30 / 0 0 0 0 P28 60 35 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJohnson LONG TERM...JJohnson AVIATION...JJohnson