794 FXUS65 KABQ 010523 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1023 PM MST Fri Jan 31 2020 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE Moderately breezy conditions will subside this evening for many locations, but drainage winds will prove to be gusty at KSAF throughout the morning hours Saturday. Batches of high clouds will occasionally move into the state, but VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 to 36 hours. 52 && .PREV DISCUSSION...232 PM MST Fri Jan 31 2020... .SYNOPSIS... A warm weekend will continue with highs reaching the 50s to 60 across western and central New Mexico and to near 70 across the eastern plains Sunday. Strong westerly winds and low humidity will allow for elevated fire weather through eastern New Mexico as well Sunday. A cold and potent winter storm system will bring the warmth to an end Monday with snow entering into the northwestern third of the state. This will spread through the central mountain chain Monday night and through eastern New Mexico early Tuesday. Snow levels will fall to valley floors with light to moderate snow and gusty winds causing hazardous travel conditions Monday night through Tuesday. Bitter cold settles in Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with a warming trend thereafter through the end of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... Significant warming trend this weekend as strengthening high pressure aloft west of NM tonight shifts eastward and gradually flattens through late Saturday. Rising heights/warming aloft will result in impressive inversions. Trended below guidance on MinT at most valley locales/usual cold sinks. NBM looked reasonable for tonight, but is far more aggressive with warming Saturday night as compared to GFS, NAM and ECMWF MOS. Only other forecast concern will be breezy to locally windy conditions developing Sunday afternoon across mainly northeast areas beneath a stronger zonal flow aloft and associated deepening of the lee-side surface trough. Downslope warming/drying will boost temperatures to unseasonably mild readings across the east on Sunday with plenty warm readings across west owing to better mixing. If you like Saturday, then Sunday will be even warmer and the warmest day next week. KJ LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... A major shift in the weather pattern is still on track to arrive Monday. Deterministic runs of the GFS and ECMWF continue to have good support from their respective ensemble means with a cold and potent 532dm H5 low digging down into the Great Basin Monday with precipitation entering into far northwest NM Monday afternoon. There is a tap of sub-tropical moisture being drawn northward over Mexico, however the timing continues to a bit amiss for NM and most of it looks go through the TX Big Bend area. As a result eastern NM looks to remain dry until Monday night into Tuesday. Considerably colder air will follow the Pacific front, and this is supported with NAEFs ensembles being -3 std devs for both H7 and H5 temperatures. As such, snow levels drop to valley floors through the west Monday night, with the backdoor portion spreading snow southward through the eastern plains Tuesday. The light to moderate snowfall and gusty winds will allow for hazardous travel conditions through a good portion of the forecast area. While confidence dips Tuesday night, both the GFS and ECMWF hint at a second energy max wrapping around the west side of the upper low, likely keeping snow showers going through portions of western NM into Wednesday morning. Much colder and drier air advects into NM during Wednesday with temperatures struggling to warm up despite the clearing conditions. Lows Wednesday night will be the coldest of the forecast period, and perhaps for the season thus far? Whatever your coldest night so far this winter has been, it could be that cold again Wednesday morning. Temperatures warm from their on out through the rest of the work week with highs climbing back to the upper 40s to 50s through western and central NM and 60s in the east on Friday. 41/24 && .FIRE WEATHER... Ventilation will remain poor for all but portions of eastern NM on Saturday before improving most areas Sunday, especially the east, and areawide on Monday. Potential for elevated if not briefly critical fire weather conditions across the northeast plains Sunday afternoon as gusty winds combine with unseasonably warm temperatures and low RH. Sunday's high temperatures, warmest day of the upcoming week, will approach 25 degrees above seasonal across the northeast. A change toward much colder and unsettled weather is expected beginning Monday with sharp changes during the Monday night through Wednesday period as a cold upper level storm system and associated cold front impact the area. Drier and warmer for the latter half of the work week. KJ 41 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$