023 FXUS64 KLUB 302337 AAA AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Lubbock TX 537 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2020 .AVIATION... VFR conditions in place at all three TAF sites. Expect VFR conditions through the night however a cold front will push across the TAF sites in the early morning hours. There is considerable uncertainty in whether there will be MVFR to IFR ceilings behind the front that could move across KPVW and KLBB. The number of computer model forecasts that have these ceilings is increasing with time so opted to include at TEMPO for now to see how model trends continue through the night. Any ceilings and low visibilities will dissipate after sunrise with VFR conditions continuing through the daytime hours Friday. Jordan && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 115 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2020/ DISCUSSION... Flow aloft has veered and dried this afternoon just behind a passing upper level low pressure trough. Low clouds stubborn to break up across the Rolling Plains but solutions indicate clouds should gradually erode later this afternoon into the evening with a cool, quiet weather evening dominating. Situation changes after midnight as a low amplitude upper trough currently sliding southward through the central Rockies moves into the southern Rockies and High Plains. The bulk of the mid and upper forcing will remain across New Mexico but solutions indicate the western South Plains will be subject to modest lift and briefly near saturated conditions in the 850 millibar to 500 millibar layer. And a cold front moving south in tandem with this forcing will add low level lift, with best frontal forcing just east through the eastern South Plains and Rolling Plains where deeper moisture and synoptic lifting will be less favorable. Solutions present a mixed bag with a few generating rain showers eastern areas late tonight and a few generating snow showers near the New Mexico border. We will compromise and add flurries west, sprinkles east for late tonight just behind the front that will pass through all of the area before daybreak Friday. Bulk of lift and moisture should be south of the area shortly after daybreak Friday. Friday should see the upper trough continue south with mid clouds clearing but breezy, cool conditions otherwise. After a cool Friday night a warm-up will ensue as has been advertised with a flattening weak upper ridge Saturday followed by increasing west then southwest flow aloft Sunday into Monday. This should turn into a breezy period as well and may present elevated fire danger both Sunday and Monday. A Sharp upper trough is still on track to dig into the southern Rockies and southern Plains Tuesday into Wednesday along with potentially fairly cold air and have retained low mention of rain or snow mainly late Tuesday. RMcQueen && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 14