293 FXUS61 KCLE 301454 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 954 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region today and tonight. A weak disturbance will track northeast across the region on Friday. Another trough will track east across the Great Lakes Saturday and Saturday night. High pressure will build across the area Sunday through Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Updated temperatures/dewpoints. Added a small area of flurries in the western portion of the CWA over the next couple of hours which includes the Toledo area. Also decreased cloud cover in NW PA for the current hour, but expect it to fill back in through the afternoon. No changes to the forecast with the early morning update. Original discussion... A persistent subsidence inversion remains over the area as high pressure continues to build east across the region today. Expecting a fairly dry forecast today, however some of the hi- res models are indicating a bit of low level UVM through the day with some better 925-850mb moisture return northward through eastern OH/western PA ahead of a weak disturbance tracking east through the Ohio valley. If anything materializes out of this, would imagine a similar drizzle/rain shower setup as the past several days, although surface dewpoint depressions and meager mid level moisture will likely preclude any precip. Highs today will struggle again, with mid 30s expected across the area. Lows tonight will drop into the mid/upper 20s for most of the area, where some clearing in the low levels is possible for a brief time early in the overnight as upper ridging builds over the region. A vort max will lift northeast across the local area Friday ahead of a longwave trough that will settle southeast across the Great Lakes. This may be enough forcing to provide some light precip across the area through the day, as mid level moisture returns to the area. The best moisture and forcing looks to remain across the southeast half of the area, with the best support for precip south of the forecast area. Nevertheless, will carry slight chance pops through the day across the southeast half of the area. Highs will creep up a few more degrees, topping out the mid/upper 30s, with a few 40 degree readings possible across the southern part of the forecast area. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A series of shortwaves moving through the mean trough across the Great Lakes and New England will bring some light precipitation chances to the region going into the first part of the weekend. With a brief period of surface ridging across the area Friday night have a dry forecast, but have the chance for rain/snow showers Saturday/Saturday night with the passage of a weak surface trough. A warming trend begins Sunday as the flow shifts west then southwest. With breaks in the overcast developing for the second half of the day, we should see temperatures warm well into the 40s for much of OH (and NW PA around 40). Not seeing a reason for any precip Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The evolution of the early week system varies enough to have a noticeable impact on the temperature forecast in particular. It all revolves around frontal position. The latest GFS has a stronger and more southern low crossing Ontario into Quebec and a resulting dry surface cold front dragging southward to near Lake Erie. If we were to get a wind shift across the lakeshore counties, the forecast would end up chillier. Have sided more with the ECMWF as the GFS likes to keep pulling cold air too far south. Therefore have Monday's highs rising into the 50s and that front staying north of the area. Low pressure develops and moves along a frontal boundary advancing from the west. Again there are differences on strength and timing of waves of low pressure and therefore impacts on the temperature forecast. Overall though this cold front crosses Tuesday night giving us another very mild day on Tuesday. Temperatures drop Tuesday night with little recovery Wednesday. As far as precipitation chances go and with those preferences mentioned on the evolution of the frontal boundary, have rain chances entering the forecast on Monday evening with a peak late Tuesday/Tuesday night and a transition to some snow showers as the cold air filters in. && .AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Stubborn MVFR ceilings will persist at the terminals through much of the period as a subsidence inversion remains in place with high pressure building across the area. Early clearing at KERI and KYNG will fill back in with low clouds through the day. Some sites may pop up to VFR later this afternoon/evening, with anticipated return to MVFR late in the period. Winds will be light and variable today and tonight. .OUTLOOK...Non-VFR conditions possible Friday through Sunday. && .MARINE... Quiet conditions on the lake through the first half of the weekend with weak flow. By Saturday afternoon a west-southwest flow develops and increases on Sunday to 15 to 20 knots as a warm front lifts northeast across the lake. Low pressure will track across the central lakes early in the week and bring the cold front to Lake Erie late Monday night or Tuesday with a wind shift to the north- northwest. Therefore a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed Sunday/Sunday night for the eastern two-thirds of the nearshore waters. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Kahn SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...Oudeman AVIATION...Greenawalt MARINE...Oudeman