293 FXUS61 KCLE 290929 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 429 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build east across the region today. A weak disturbance will pass south of the area tonight into Thursday before high pressure returns to the area through Friday. An upper trough will move across the region Saturday and Saturday night before high pressure builds back across the region Sunday through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will start to build across the area through the day. Lingering low level moisture and very weak lift present across the area this morning prompts at least a flurry/freezing drizzle mention for the southern part of the area through mid morning, otherwise observational trends and model guidance supports a dry forecast for much of the area. Low clouds may erode from the northeast through the day, but mid/high clouds will return as an upper wave dives south of the area tonight into Thursday. The better forcing will be south of the forecast area and lack of mid level moisture precludes precip chances for the area. Ridging will continue to build behind the wave Thursday. Temps today wont budge too much, with diurnal rises of only a few degrees into the low/mid 30s. Lows tonight will range from the mid 20s west of I-71 to the mid teens in the higher terrain of northwest PA. A few more degrees will be tacked onto Thursday's high temps, with mid to upper 30s expected. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Thursday night, models show high pressure centered over New England. By Friday, the high will continue east allowing moisture to increase across the region as moisture front a southern system merge. es with moisture out of the Upper Midwest. For now, will go along with guidance which remains dry through Friday. Although there w. ill be weak isentropic lift, best forcing remains to our west with an upper low and south with low pressure along the Gulf Coast. Friday night guidance again shows dry conditions with only a slight chance of snow showers far southeast. Saturday a trough will move through associated with low pressure in Ontario. Will have chance pops for rain and snow. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sunday strong warm advection will move into the region as an upper ridge builds across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Guidance continues to show chance pops for far northeast Ohio and nwrn PA from saturday night through early Sunday but Sunday afternoon should be dry as moisture moves east of the region. Dry conditions should continue through Monday however late Monday night into Tuesday will need at least chance pops for mainly rain as low pressure moves into the area from the Central Plains. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... MVFR stratus will persist across the region through much of the period as high pressure builds across the region. A few pockets of IFR are possible early, mainly at KMFD, but in general MVFR will persist. A few sites may pop to VFR during the day. Some scattering of the low cloud deck anticipated late in the period, mainly after 00Z. Light/variable winds through the first half of the period will become northeast this afternoon. .OUTLOOK...Non-VFR likely through tonight. Non-VFR returns Friday night into Saturday. && .MARINE... Fairly tranquil marine conditions expected today through Saturday as high pressure centered over Ontario, slowly builds south across the area through the end of the week. Expect winds winds to remain below 15 knots through much of the balance of the week. A trough will cross the region over the weekend with the potential to reach Small Craft Advisory conditions as the flow becomes westerly on the east half of the lake by Sunday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt NEAR TERM...Greenawalt SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...Greenawalt MARINE...TK