291 FXUS62 KTAE 290220 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 920 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020 .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight through Wednesday]... A fairly progressive upper level shortwave trough is currently over SW Texas, and is expected to move into the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday morning. A weak surface low pressure system has developed across the Oklahoma Texas border in conjunction with the aforementioned upper level shortwave trough, and is expected to quickly dive south into the northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday through Wednesday night. This surface low pressure system is expected to remain weak as the upper level trough quickly becomes vertically stacked across our region. With the warm sector generally remaining south of our region over the Gulf of Mexico, severe weather is not expected. The immediate coastline may have the potential for a storm or two to produce gusty winds; however forecast temperatures inland and along the coastline remain stable enough for any surface based storms coming onshore to quickly become decoupled. Widespread rain is mainly expected across the region tomorrow. Highs will generally remain in the upper 50s to low 60s across the region, with lows tonight bottoming out into the low 40s. && .PREV DISCUSSION [625 PM EST]... .SHORT TERM [Tomorrow Night Through Thursday Night]... Any lingering showers across the region will quickly be exiting our eastern zones as the upper level trough and associated surface low pressure system quickly exit off the Florida east coast early Thursday morning. Clouds may linger through the day on Thursday; however, mostly zonal flow and weak high pressure building across the region may provide enough subsidence to provide some breaks ahead of the next system on Friday and Saturday. Highs will generally peak in the mid 60s across the region, and lows Wednesday night will fall into the mid 40s. .LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]... An extremely complicated upper level pattern is expected to produce an active weather period Friday through Saturday, and over the early to mid part of the next work week. This weekends system currently is expected to produce more widespread rainfall compared to this weeks mid-week system; however, it will once again be progressive. The warm sector of low pressure system over the weekend will likely remain offshore preventing any development of severe storms. Expect isentropic lift across the entire region to produce a large rain shield responsible for widespread rain Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Tuesday's system is something to watch; however, at this time predictability is too low to determine the extent of any possible severe threat. .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Thursday] VFR conditions and light winds expected through Wednesday morning. An area of rain will then move in west to east by late morning with CIGS slowly falling throughout the afternoon, eventually landing near 1500-2000ft by the end of the TAF period. They look to fall into the IFR range after 00z. Timing of the category changes may be off by an hour or two in either directions and updates/amendments will be needed. .MARINE... Winds and seas at or just below Cautionary levels should be expected through the week. Showers and isolated storms are forecast Wednesday afternoon through the night. .FIRE WEATHER... Precipitation chance increases tomorrow afternoon. A drying trend will follow on Thursday. No fire weather concerns over the next two days. .HYDROLOGY... The next two systems (Wednesday and Friday/Saturday) will bring some rain to the region, but with both of these systems anticipated to be fairly weak and quick movers, rainfall amounts should only be an inch or so. This will have little more no impact on area river levels. The next substantial system does not look to affect our region until the middle of next week. Thus, there are no flood concerns through the next several days. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 41 61 45 65 48 / 0 70 30 0 30 Panama City 47 63 47 64 52 / 0 80 10 0 40 Dothan 41 57 42 62 47 / 0 80 20 0 30 Albany 39 59 43 62 46 / 0 80 30 0 20 Valdosta 40 61 45 64 48 / 0 60 40 0 20 Cross City 39 66 47 67 50 / 0 60 50 0 10 Apalachicola 48 62 48 63 52 / 0 80 20 0 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LN SHORT TERM...Bunker LONG TERM...Bunker AVIATION...LN MARINE...Bunker FIRE WEATHER...DiCatarina HYDROLOGY...Godsey