180 FXUS66 KLOX 282230 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 230 PM PST Tue Jan 28 2020 .SYNOPSIS...28/124 PM. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies are expected through the week with the exception of Tuesday night to Wednesday morning when areas of low clouds are expected across the interior. Breezy to windy conditions will persist through Friday, with the strongest winds expected Tuesday night to Wednesday. High temperatures will be above normal through Saturday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...28/217 PM. Winds are the main issue for the next several days as we continue to be in this inside slider upper air pattern which produces periods of strong northerly flow aloft and pressure gradients. We're getting a reinforcing shot of upper air support and northerly gradients tonight as the next insider slider drops into the Great Basin. This should push winds at least 5-10 mph stronger than they were last night and many valley areas in LA/Ventura Counties that didn't have wind last night should see at least low end advisory level winds tonight. Still quite a bit of uncertainty on the amount of wind that will get into the SGV as hi res models have bounced around from not much to moderate advisory speeds, mainly the western portion. Current feeling is that winds aloft and cold air advection won't be strong enough to generate anything more than locally breezy or low end advisory level winds in the SGV so for now will hold off with any headlines. Otherwise, forecast remains on track for advisory/warning level winds across much of the area south of Pt Conception through at least Thursday, strongest in the I5 Corridor and SB mountains tonight into Wednesday morning. At that point there will be a bit more of an easterly component to the winds which will lower speeds in some areas (SB County) but increase them slightly in others (eastern SG Mtns, central/eastern Ventura County, and parts of the Central Coast). Newest model guidance now is showing additional easterly flow Friday with surface gradients now in excess of 6mb (LAX-DAG) Friday morning. So it's quite possible the current slate of advisories will need extended yet another day into Friday and with the added easterly component these winds could expand to more areas and possible some of the coastal waters. Temperature forecast mostly unchanged with a warming trend through the end of the week. By Friday we should start to see some near 80 degree temps in the warmer LA/Ventura valleys. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...28/228 PM. The warming trend will continue into Saturday as a strong ridge aloft envelops most of California with light to moderate offshore surface gradients. There should be plenty of 80 degree readings across inland portions of LA/Ventura Counties and even near 80 within a few miles of the coast. Not quite as warm north of Pt Conception but still well into the 70s which would be 10-15 degrees above normal. The ridge breaks down quickly Sunday as a cold trough moves into the Pac NW. This one is again taking that inside slider path but perhaps just enough of a westerly track to pick up some moisture. The deterministic models are dry as are virtually all of the GFS ensembles, but the EC does show some very light (<=.05) across LA/Ventura Counties. This may end up just inducing a much deeper marine layer and possibly some drizzle in upslope areas across eastern LA County early Monday but either way the primary impact will be to bring much cooler temps starting Sunday and then possibly another strong north/northwest wind event Sunday night into early Monday. Models still showing decent northerly winds aloft Tuesday as another impulse drops into the trough so the first half of next week may end up being quite windy but cooler than this week. Beyond that models are still favoring this ridge/inside slider pattern through at least the middle of the month so likely no big chances for precip for another couple weeks. && .AVIATION...28/1159Z. At 0936Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. Overall high confidence in 12Z TAFs in terms of flight categories, lower confidence on winds. During periods of gusty northerly winds, winds may fluctuate between NW to NE. Due to gusty northerly winds, moderate turbulence and LLWS is possible through the TAF period. For KSBP, there is a 30% chance that conditions remain VFR this morning. KLAX...High confidence in 12Z TAF in terms of VFR conditions, lower confidence in terms of wind. Good confidence in N winds remaining under 8 kt through 14Z. High confidence that any easterly wind component will be under 6 kt 14Z-18Z. Moderate turbulence and LLWS is possible through the TAF period. KBUR...High confidence in 12Z TAF in terms of VFR conditions, lower confidence in terms of wind. Moderate turbulence and LLWS is possible through the TAF period. && .MARINE...28/147 PM. For the outer waters, there is moderate to hi confidence in the current forecast. Strong NW to N winds to Gale Force can be expected, with Gale Warnings in effect for the waters W and S of Point Conception into Wed night. For the northern zone (PZZ670), a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect through late Thu night for winds and seas. Otherwise, there is a 60% chance of SCA wind gusts to persist at times Thu through Sat, with a 50% chance of Gale Force winds for Sun. For the inner waters N of Point Sal, there is moderate to hi confidence in the current forecast. SCA wind gusts can be expected through late tonight. There is a 30% chance of SCA wind gusts afternoons and evenings thru Thu. Conditions should remain generally below SCA levels Fri through Sat, then there is a 40% chance of Gale Force wind gusts on Sun. For the inner waters S of Point Conception, there is moderate to hi confidence in the current forecast. SCA conditions at times due to gusty winds can be expected through Thu, with gusty N winds expected from Point Mugu to Santa Monica at times. For Thu night thru Sat, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels, then there is a 50% chance of SCA to Gale Force wind gusts on Sun. A series of large long period westerly swells will impact the area at times through Friday, along with a large and steep short period waves much of the time into Thu night due to the winds. && .BEACHES...28/146 PM. A series of large west and northwest swells will move into the coastal waters over the next few days. High Surf is now expected to continue for the Central Coast through late Thursday night with breakers of 8 to 13 feet. The highest surf of 10 to 13 feet should occur Thursday into Thursday night on west and northwest facing beaches. S of Point Conception, west-facing beaches will continue to have high surf up to 7 feet through 6 PM this evening. There is a small chance this Advisory may need to be extended into Wednesday or even Thursday, but for now if appears elevated surf will be prevalent during that period. The public should keep out of the ocean and stay away from rocks and jetties during high surf conditions. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zones 34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST Wednesday for zone 39. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST this evening for zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Thursday for zones 44-45-88. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect until 3 PM PST Thursday for zones 46-53-54. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST this evening for zone 52. (See LAXNPWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Wednesday for zone 52. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM PST Thursday for zone 547. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 PM PST Thursday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 6 PM PST Wednesday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PST Thursday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && .HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (FRI-TUE). Strong Santa Ana winds possible Friday. Gusty north to northwest winds possible late Sunday through Tuesday. Periods of high surf are expected for the Central Coast through Thursday. && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Stewart MARINE...Sirard BEACHES...Sirard SYNOPSIS...Phillips weather.gov/losangeles