213 FXUS61 KOKX 271736 CCA AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service New York NY 1236 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A series of weak upper level disturbances will move across the area today. High pressure will then gradually build from the west this week, with a dry cold frontal passage late day Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Low pressure may impact the area this coming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A deep layer trough approaches this afternoon and its associated low level cyclonic flow and positive H8 theta-e advection support mostly cloudy skies the rest of the day. A few sprinkles cannot be ruled out, but low level moisture profiles are dry and have elected leave out of the forecast through this evening. High temps today are a shade above GFS/NAM MOS and are a few degrees above normal, with lower and mid 40s expected. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Should see some clearing tonight and into Tuesday, except perhaps NW of NYC where lake effect clouds may hang on in cyclonic flow. Continued low level CAA will bring temps a little closer to normal, with highs in the upper 30s/lower 40s expected. Another approaching northern stream upper trough will help push a weak cold front toward/across the area from the north during late day/early evening. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will remain north of the region through the end of the week with dry and seasonably chilly conditions. Expect mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights with highs in the 30s or lower 40s and overnight lows in the teens and 20s. By next weekend, models continue to diverge on the eventual evolution of the next trough, and thus depth of surface low development and tracks remain unclear. However, there is the potential for precip next weekend, with confidence in any one solution low at this time. Will continue to carry chance POPs at this time. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure over the Canadian maritimes will be slow to work east over the next couple of days, while a large area of high pressure gradually builds in from the west. This will keep the area under a W-NW flow. VFR. Ceilings around 4000 ft this afternoon will dissipate this evening. Clouds increase again Tuesday morning at 3500-4000 ft, but conditions are expected to remain VFR. West winds with gusts to around 20 kt this afternoon will diminish and shift to the NW tonight. Gusts then return at around 20 kt Tuesday morning. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Low chance of an MVFR ceiling early this afternoon. Gusts may be more occasional than frequent. KLGA TAF Comments: Low chance of an MVFR ceiling early this afternoon. Gusts may be more occasional than frequent. KEWR TAF Comments: Low chance of an MVFR ceiling early this afternoon. Gusts may be more occasional than frequent. High confidence left of 310 magnetic today. KTEB TAF Comments: Low chance of an MVFR ceiling early this afternoon. Gusts may be more occasional than frequent. KHPN TAF Comments: Low chance of an MVFR ceiling early this afternoon. An occasional gust to 20 kt is possible. KISP TAF Comments: Low chance of an MVFR ceiling early this afternoon. Gusts may be more occasional than frequent. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Tuesday...VFR. NW winds G20kt. .Wednesday through Friday...VFR. .Saturday...MVFR or lower possible in rain or snow. && .MARINE... Winds and seas on the waters west of Fire Island Inlet have begun subsiding below SCA levels. The SCA remains in effect, but may be taken down by 4 pm. Otherwise, SCA conds continue on the ocean, as W winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and incoming 2-3 ft SE swell produce combined seas of 5-6 ft. These conds should abate this evening E of Fire Island Inlet. SUB-SCA conditions are then expected on all waters through Friday as high pressure slowly builds in. There could be some gusty NW winds Tuesday night and Wednesday, but these should diminish Thursday and Friday as the center of the high passes over the waters. The next chance of SCA conditions should be over the weekend when low pressure may impact the waters. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the end of the week. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/Goodman NEAR TERM...Goodman/DS SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...FEB MARINE...BC/Goodman HYDROLOGY...BC/Goodman EQUIPMENT...