004 FXUS65 KABQ 261729 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1029 AM MST Sun Jan 26 2020 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist across eastern NM and much of central NM. However, deteriorating conditions are forecast late tonight through Monday morning at KFMN and KGUP as an upper level trough moves east into the region and brings a round of precipitation. Prevailing MVFR conditions are forecast at KFMN and KGUP Monday morning, with occasional IFR conditions in snow. Mountain obscurations will develop early Monday morning across western NM and will expand east to the central mountain chain by 15-18Z. 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION...304 AM MST Sun Jan 26 2020... .SYNOPSIS... Today will be the last day of warmer weather with a winter weather disturbance expected to move through New Mexico Monday, although southeastern New Mexico to include Roswell will hold onto the warm weather Monday. This will favor snow accumulations of several inches through the northern mountains, in particular the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and near Raton Pass. The eastern plains will see a sharp drop in temperatures Tuesday as this winter system exits the region into Texas. The next and potentially more potent winter storm system is expected to arrive into western New Mexico Wednesday, swinging through the state into Thursday. Expect another drop in temperatures and winter weather concerns across the state as this system moves through, most likely Wednesday night through central and eastern New Mexico. Stay tuned for forecast updates. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... A ridge of high pressure aloft will finish crossing the area today, then an approaching upper level trough will begin to spread rain and snow showers over northwest areas late tonight. Despite increasing high clouds temperatures today will vary from near normal to as much as 11 degrees above normal. Then, readings will remain well above normal tonight. LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... An approaching Pacific trough early Monday will break out precipitation through the northwest quarter of the state to start the day. Snow levels will start off 5k-6k ft across the west, with precipitation transitioning to valley rain and mountain snow during the afternoon as the trough axis shifts eastward into central NM. As it does so the dynamic instability shifts eastward with remnant precipitation across the western high terrain tapering off and becoming more orographically driven behind the Pacific front. Heading into Monday evening the backdoor portion will help enhance snowfall through the northeast quarter of the state, specifically the eastern slopes of the Sangre's and Raton Pass. So Monday evening looks to be the period of highest snowfall rates in these areas with 2 to 6 inches in a six hour period. While this may cause some travel concerns at the Raton Pass area, it is marginal for an advisory. So will punt the decision on issuing any highlights for the Raton Pass and Sangre's to next shift. Snow could linger through far eastern NM into Tue morning, but on the whole Tue will see conditions clear out with colder air still moving through eastern NM behind the backdoor front. Temperatures rebound a bit through the west. Meanwhile, the second colder and potentially more potent winter storm system expected to arrive Wed/Thu still has considerable model discrepancies associated with it's storm track and intensity. The latest GFS and its ensembles are now favoring a storm track southward through the Gila Wed evening. The ECMWF and its ensembles are further west, with the deterministic run much further west having a 555dm low southwest of Phoenix while the GFS is centered more over Catron County at 00Z Thu. What can be said is that temperatures will trend down for Wednesday with the axis of precipitation oriented SW to NE through New Mexico, but how much and where and how long it will persist still are big questions with these latest runs. Although, precipitation does not look to enter the eastern plains until Thursday with the west tapering off. Clearer conditions with warmer weather is still favored for the end of the week into the weekend, although there is uncertainty for the onset of a ridging pattern building in from the west. 44/24 && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry and warm weather will persist through today as a ridge of high pressure crosses, although high clouds will increase in coverage ahead of our next storm system. Temperatures will mostly trend downward Monday through Thursday as a couple of storm systems cross from the northwest with a mix of rain and snow. Accumulations look modest but fairly widespread with the best chance for wetting precipitation in the mountains and across parts of the east. Northwest wind gusts will generally reach 25 to 40 mph across the southwest half of the fire weather forecast area on Monday as a Pacific cold front crosses. There will also be a back door cold front with a northeasterly wind shift, but it doesn't look as gusty. Warmer and drier weather will return Friday and Saturday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the southwest US. Areas of poor ventilation are expected each day, but there will be general ventilation improvement as upper level troughs and associated cold fronts cross Monday and Wednesday. 44 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$