362 FXUS61 KCLE 221551 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1051 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather returns to the area late Thursday night into Friday morning and continues through the weekend. Near normal temperatures will be present across the area today with slightly above normal temperatures through the rest of the 7 day forecast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Current forecast is on track with fair weather expected today with moderating temperatures. The morning soundings show a strong radiation inversion given the snow cover, long nights,and surface high nearby. 850 mb temperatures have warmed from yesterday to near 0C. Slight warm advection is expected today and temperatures should reach into the mid 30s for afternoon highs. Varying amounts of high clouds will continue to spread across the region. Previous forecast: Today's weather will be as close to "normal" or seasonable averages as you can get for January 22th. The center of the cold high pressure system was located just to our southeast and surface winds have already returned from the south across much of the area. We will see a mixture of high clouds and sunshine today due to passing thin cirrus cloudiness. After starting out this morning in the lower to middle teens away from the lake and around the upper teens closer to the lakeshore, we will manage to climb to the lower and middle 30s this afternoon. A southerly breeze around 10 to 12 mph may make it feel like its in the 20s most of the day but at least the sunshine will be out. We will not be as cold tonight and the coldest temperatures will be where existing snowpack remains. On Thursday, winds will become more southeasterly in response to the low pressure system developing in the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Clouds will also be increasing as well as high and mid level moisture. High temperatures will still be able to reach around 40 or the low 40s Thursday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Deep vertically stacked low pressure system will move east across the local area and then begin to lift northeast by Saturday into Saturday night. The resultant surface low will follow the same path. The low is expected to tap into some Atlantic moisture that will stream north into the storm system. Some warm air advection will take place ahead of the system and then cold air advection will follow Saturday into Saturday night. Some dynamic cooling will take place as the entire low pressure system passes overhead. As cooling takes place, there will be a difference in whether rain is the predominant precipitation by Saturday and Saturday night or snow. Upper level model soundings support the change to all snow Friday night into Saturday. Depending on the track of the low pressure system, some warm air advection could linger a bit longer keeping a mix of rain and snow. So, for now, will lean in that direction. Surface high temperatures by Saturday may occur early in the day and possibly remaining nearly steady or falling slightly through the day. Saturday night's lows will be slightly cooler in the lower 30s across the forecast area. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The vertically stacked low pressure system will move east of the area Sunday and Monday and upper level ridge will begin to build into the local area from the west and begin to affect the local area by Tuesday. The surface low pressure system will exit to the east as well taking the precipitation with it. This will allow a large area of high pressure to build east across the area Monday night into Tuesday and bring another round of fair weather to the region. Temperatures through this period will begin to moderate as cold air retreats to the east and some slight warm air advection takes place in advance of the high pressure. && .AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... The conditions will be VFR and quiet weather for pilots flying in and out of northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania for the next 24 to 30 hours. High level cirrus clouds will increase but no aviation impacts are expected. Winds will be southerly about 5 to 10 knots through the TAF period. .OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible late Thursday night into Friday in light snow or light rain. && .MARINE... Generally light winds expected on the lake through the forecast period and should remain 10 knots or less. Next storm system will affect the lake over the weekend and bring with it rain and then a mix of rain and snow to the area. No headlines expected during the period.&& .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Griffin NEAR TERM...LaPlante SHORT TERM...Lombardy LONG TERM...Lombardy AVIATION...Griffin MARINE...Lombardy