467 FXUS61 KBUF 220930 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 430 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build to the east coast and bring dry weather to our region through Friday with temperatures climbing to well above normal levels. Low pressure will then move slowly from the Ohio Valley Saturday to the New England coast Sunday. This system will bring a mix of rain and snow initially on Saturday, which may change to accumulating wet snow late Saturday through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... High pressure will build towards the eastern seaboard today, allowing southwest return flow to increase across the eastern Great Lakes. This will bring a dry day to our region. Some lake induced low clouds northeast of the lakes this morning should break by afternoon with a period of sunshine. 850 mb temperatures will climb towards 0C this afternoon, supporting highs in the mid 30s in most locations, with upper 20s to lower 30s east of Lake Ontario. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... This period will be characterized by quiet weather, with above normal temperatures and relatively light winds. To start the period, an elongated area of high pressure will stretch from the Mid Atlantic region northeast to the Canadian Maritimes. This feature combined with upper ridging overhead will guarantee a dry Wednesday night through Thursday. As the aforementioned area of high pressure drifts east into the Atlantic, it will only be replaced by an even stronger area of high pressure that will ridge south over our area from Canada. The center of this high will move from James Bay Thursday night, eastward across Quebec to north of Maine by Friday evening. This will keep deeper moisture trying to advance northeastward from developing low pressure over the Lower Ohio Valley to our southwest, with much of the region remaining dry through the daylight hours. Latest guidance has sped up the northeastward progression of the low just a bit. This will bring the chance for some light precipitation, mainly in the form of some light rain showers to southwestern NYS by sometime Friday afternoon. Temperatures will be some 5 to 10 degrees above average Thursday, with highs ranging from the upper 30s to lower 40s. It will be even warmer Friday as most areas will be some 10 to 15 degrees above average, with highs for most areas getting into the lower to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Moving on into the longer term portion of the forecast...low pressure over the Ohio Valley Friday evening will lift northeastward to about Lake Erie Friday night and Saturday...while gradually weakening as its energy transfers to a developing secondary coastal low along or just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The secondary coastal low will then continue to deepen as it moves northeastward off the New England coastline Sunday and Sunday night...while lingering deep cyclonic flow across our region gradually gives way to surface-based ridging building eastward from the Upper Great Lakes. In terms of PoPs...increasing synoptic forcing and moisture attendant to the initial primary low and its parent upper level low will spread increasing precipitation chances from southwest to northeast Friday night and Saturday. In the official forecast...have reflected this by spreading likely to categorical PoPs across far western New York Friday night...then across the remainder of the area on Saturday. The deep moist cyclonic flow on the backside of the strengthening coastal system should then maintain at least a general likelihood of pcpn areawide Saturday night and Sunday...with the precip then quickly tapering off Sunday night as the deeper synoptic moisture gets stripped away...and as the aforementioned ridge builds eastward into our region. With regard to ptype...the precipitation may initially begin as some light rain Friday night...with steady cooling of the atmospheric column then driving a transition over to mainly wet snow as the night progresses. During this transition period...a brief wintry mix cannot be ruled out dependent upon how quickly the boundary layer and a modest warm layer aloft cool relative to each other...however confidence in this remains too low for inclusion in the forecast given both the time frame and continued model differences in how thermal profiles will evolve. After that time...the precipitation should tend to be more in the way of wet snow through the remainder of the event...though marginal thermal profiles may still be supportive of some rain mixing back in again across the lower elevations during the day Saturday and again on Sunday. While this system will be nowhere near as strong as the one that passed through our region this past weekend...it could still bring a notable water-laden snowfall to portions of our region from later Friday night through Sunday...with this potential heavily dependent on the eventual track/strength of the low and its resultant influence on thermal profiles across our region...all of which remains uncertain this far out in advance. At this point...it appears the best potential for such a snowfall will lie across our higher terrain...which should run a bit colder overall throughout the event. Following the passage of this system...the aforementioned ridge will then build directly across our region and bring about a return to mainly dry weather for Monday and Tuesday...while temperatures will remain a bit above late January normals. Looking a bit further out beyond the end of this period...it appears as if the warmer than average temps should continue through at least the end of the month...with the GFS/GEM/ECMWF all in agreement on keeping any notable cold air bottled up well to our north over northern Canada. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Lake induced clouds will bring MVFR cigs to KIAG, KBUF, and KART this morning. Backing flow will lift the lake clouds out of KIAG and KBUF between 13z-16z, then KART by 18z. VFR conditions will then prevail throughout the region through tonight. Southwest winds will gust to near 25 knots downwind of the lakes at KIAG, KBUF and KART through this morning, then back off during the afternoon. Outlook... Thursday through Friday...Generally VFR. Saturday...MVFR/IFR possible with rain and wet snow. Saturday night and Sunday...MVFR/IFR possible in wet snow. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure will move from the Ohio Valley to the eastern seaboard late this afternoon. A fairly tight pressure gradient will remain in place across the eastern Great Lakes. This will support a period of moderate west to southwest winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through this afternoon. The pressure gradient will then relax from tonight through Friday, with a period of light winds and flat wave action. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LOZ043-044. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LOZ042-045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/RSH/TMA NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/RSH/TMA SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...RSH/TMA MARINE...Hitchcock/RSH/TMA