819 FXUS61 KCLE 211729 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1229 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the northern Plains will gradually shift eastward reaching central Ohio later today and evening. The high will shift to the east coast by Wednesday night. The next area of low pressure will attempt to develop near the Gulf Coast States on Thursday and may move to near the Ohio River Valley Friday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Noon Update...Snow flurries continue just east of Cleveland to the Ashtabula County line and near the Youngstown area. These snow showers are forecast to end in the next few hours. Little to no snow accumulation is expected. Otherwise...forecast looks on track...with continued clearing skies...except along the lake shore. .Previous Discussion...A light northwest surface flow from the surface to 850 mb continues to move over the eastern Great Lakes including Lake Erie. There has been a slight increase in moisture at 925 mb and that flow is currently moving across the lakeshore this morning with a little more cloud cover and an uptick of scattered lake effect snow showers and flurries. 850 mb temperatures remain between -10C to -13C. The CLE radar has show a slight increase in radar of light snow showers moving in from Lake Erie. We think this will continue through early to mid morning before tapering off again as the flow shift to more westerly later this morning or midday. As the center of the high pressure system moves toward to Ohio River Valley later today, the surface flow will become more southwesterly and move any left over LES snow showers to the northeast. We could see an additional dusting o maybe a localize inch with the scattered snow showers this morning for the primary and secondary Snowbelts, especially the higher terrain. Otherwise lake effect clouds and cold temperatures will remain for most of today with some partial clearing from the southwest late. Another cold night is on tap for tonight with temperatures falling into the middle and upper teens. The coldest temperatures will be in the lower teens where the deeper snowpack and any clearing occurs. Southerly winds return on Wednesday with a slow moderation in temperatures. We will see afternoon readings back in the middle to upper 30s with some sun and passing clouds. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Upper level ridging will take place across the area and it will then shift east by Friday. The upper level ridge will force a surface high pressure to move east across the area and then east of the region by the end of the period. Deep upper level low pressure system will move into the Ohio Valley by Friday night. This low will become vertically stacked with a surface low as they move to Lake Erie by Saturday morning. Weak warm air advection will take place Thursday and Friday. Then, as surface low pressure wraps an occluded front around and into the forecast area, cold air advection will return to the region. As the whole low pressure system deepens, it will begin to tap moisture out of the southeast Atlantic states Friday night. This moisture will begin to stream north into the forecast area resulting in a threat for precipitation Thursday night through Friday night. Temperatures should be warm enough to support mostly rain but will then become mixed with snow by Friday night as colder air begins to push into the region. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Deep vertically stacked upper level low pressure system and resultant surface low pressure system will move east of the area to the New England coast by Sunday morning. Cold air advection will wrap around the back side of the storm system. An upper level ridge will move southeast into the area Sunday night into Monday followed by a shortwave trough. A surface ridge will build northeast across the area during the latter half of the period and begin to set up a return southwest flow and warm air advection into the area. Precipitation in the form of rain/snow will exit to the east and as cold air advection returns, the precipitation will return back to snow Saturday night. Eventually, residual lake effect is expected over the eastern portions of the area Sunday into Sunday night. Fair weather returns for Monday. Temperatures will start out in the lower 40s for highs cooling down into the 30s over the weekend with some slight warming Monday. The air mass does not appear to be as cold as the current air mass at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/... Light snow showers are expected to continue around KYNG through 21z. Otherwise...MVFR cigs through the 00z to 03z for most terminals...except KTOL where skies should remain VFR. Otherwise...mainly light westerly winds through the forecast. .OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Thursday night into Friday in light snow. && .MARINE... There is the possibility for strong enough winds to support a minimal small craft advisory this evening that will be short lived. Otherwise, generally light and variable winds are expected across the lake through Friday. As surface low pressure moves east across the area Saturday, winds will become easterly and could strengthen enough to support small craft advisories at that time. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Griffin NEAR TERM...Riley SHORT TERM...Lombardy LONG TERM...Lombardy AVIATION...Riley MARINE...Kahn