953 
FXUS64 KMEG 211030 CCA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
430 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2020

.DISCUSSION...
A chilly start to the morning across the Mid-South today with
temperatures generally in the 20s and wind chills in the teens.
Current satellite imagery shows lingering low clouds which have
been persistent since yesterday. Latest surface analysis shows an
upper low currently moving southeastward, allowing for some 
breaks in the clouds, this morning as negative vorticity advection
follows behind the upper low. Fingers crossed we actually see the
sun today. Flurries will still remain possible, especially for 
west Tennessee and the the northern Mississippi/Alabama border, 
where cloud cover is expected to linger just a bit longer. By 
Wednesday, ridging over the region will warm temperatures. But, 
for now high temperatures today will be in the 30s.

By Wednesday a strong, mid-level jet over the central Rockies 
will dive southeast and deepen a trough just west of our area. 
This will eventually produce a closed low over the Missouri 
region by Thursday night. Precipitation chances are expected to 
approach the area by Wednesday night and move into northeast 
Arkansas by Thursday. There is the potential for a wintry mix over
northeast Arkansas as soundings indicate a bit saturation in the 
dendritic growth zone. However, no accumulations are expected at 
this time. Temperatures Wednesday will range from the upper 30s to
lower 40s. Lows wont budge much by Wednesday night into Thursday 
morning, with temperatures mainly in the mid 30s.

The low is expected to move just north of our area and depart by 
Saturday. Models show a bit of inconsistencies with this low, as 
the GFS places it just a bit north, in Indiana and ECMWF shows it
just south in Kentucky. But, the as the low progresses rain will 
eventually move out of the area Friday night into Saturday 
morning. Temperatures Friday and Saturday will generally be in the
40s.

A ridge will begin to move back in as the low finally departs to
the east, so temperatures will finally be back in the mid to upper
50s by Sunday. The ridge will strengthen over the region at the 
start of next week, so warmer temperatures will be in place Monday
and again on Tuesday. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the 
upper 50s.


SGW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF cycle

Low clouds will remain over eastern sections of the Mid-South for
a couple more hours otherwise VFR conditions will prevail for much
of the forecast period. A few snow flurries are still possible
overnight generally for areas south of Interstate 40. Winds will
be mainly from the north at 5 to 10 knots for much of the forecast
period.

ARS 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$