374 FXUS63 KLMK 201508 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1008 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 .Forecast Update... Issued at 1007 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 A layer of stratus continues to blanket southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Reports from around the area are coming in that 0.1 to 0.2 inches of snow have fallen in some areas. The clouds producing this snow are expected to breakup over the next few hours. A Special Weather Statement was issued and PoPs have been increased to 60 percent with snow in the forecast. The snow that is falling is dry in natural and blows around easily. Widespread issues aren't expected on area roadways. && .Short Term...(Today and tonight) Issued at 255 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 Low level clouds continue to blanket much of the OH Valley this morning with snow flurries being observed across the area, generally in areas north of the Cumberland Parkway. We will get a bitterly cold start to the day, with current observations showing temperatures in the mid to upper teens and wind chills in the single digits across the region. Expect the stratus deck to gradually clear out after daybreak, however, continued cold advection will keep high temperatures today in the low 30s, with most areas struggling to reach above freezing. By this evening, a compact shortwave is projected to dive southeast out of the upper Midwest and into the TN Valley, passing just to our west. With the strong Canadian high pressure in place at the surface, expect the only impacts from this passing wave to be an increase in mid-level clouds. Tonight, low temperatures will once again drop into the mid to upper teens under mostly clear skies. .Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 216 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 Tuesday through Thursday: Strong high pressure centered over northern Missouri Tuesday morning will move through the Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians by Wednesday morning and then off the East Coast Thursday. Low temperatures Wednesday morning will be in the teens once again east of I-65, but increasing cirrus coming in from the west will keep locations west of I-65 in the lower 20s. Return flow behind the departing high on Wednesday will allow temperatures to rise into the 40s, and only settle back to near or just below freezing Wednesday night. Thursday Night through Sunday: An upper low will advance from the central Plains through the Ohio Valley to the southern New England coast during this time period. Rain will become widespread ahead of this system Thursday night and Friday. Though instability will be very weak, lift and a supply of Gulf moisture will be sufficient for around an inch of rain. Moisture will be shallow behind the system over the weekend, but enough to keep clouds and chance PoPs in the forecast. Right now it looks like precipitation would mostly be a cold light rain, but some light snow/flurries could mix in, especially Saturday night into early Sunday morning from southern Indiana into the Kentucky Blue Grass, with some possible assistance from Lake Michigan and low temperatures around the freezing mark. && .Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 620 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 Pesky stratus continue to hang over the OH Valley, with some scattered snow flurries throughout. MVFR cigs expected to persist through this morning, with improvement to VFR by this afternoon. Expect some mid-level clouds to develop over the region later today as a shortwave aloft passes to the west this evening. Winds will continue to be out of the north throughout the period, generally under 10 kts. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Update...KDW Short Term...JML Long Term...13 Aviation...JML