162 FXUS64 KMOB 201152 AAA AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 552 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2020 .DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas and aviation discussion below. && .NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Tuesday/...No substantial changes were needed at this time since the forecast remains on track. Expecting clear skies and dry conditions to persist, with colder temperatures (well below normal) through Tuesday. /26 && .AVIATION... 12Z issuance...VFR conditions were reported at the TAF sites at issuance. Expecting clear and dry conditions to persist through the TAF period as surface high pressure continues to build in from the west/northwest. Some breezy conditions are also expected today, with sustained north winds between 10 and 15 knots. Wind gusts between 15 and 25 knots are also likely, mainly near the coast. Wind gusts will decrease overnight tonight and sustained north winds will be around 10 knots or less. /26 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 444 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2020/ NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday night/...The near term forecast remains on track so far tonight, with only minor adjustments to temperatures and winds based on latest model guidance. Mainly zonal upper level flow continues over the northern Gulf coast early this morning as a northern stream trough progresses over the northeastern CONUS. Another northern stream shortwave trough will eject southward from Minnesota and move down through the upper Mississippi Valley today, entering the Tennessee Valley by Tuesday morning. Generally zonal flow will maintain its hold over the northern Gulf coast during this time. At the surface, high pressure will continue to build east/southeast from the central CONUS. This will lead to continued dry conditions as well as clear skies through tonight. The surface high pressure will maintain the light to occasionally moderate northerly flow across the area, and allow colder and drier air from the north to continue to advect into the region. At the same time, model 500MB temperatures are shown to drop to around -23C over our northern counties by late tonight as the second upper level shortwave trough progresses into the Tennessee Valley from the north. Thus, forecast surface temperatures are expected to be much lower than normal for this time of the year through the near term period. Highs today are expected to only be in the mid to upper 40s across the area. Some areas right along the coast could see highs around 50 degrees, however. Furthermore, lows tonight into tomorrow morning will generally range from the mid to upper 20s over the interior locations to around 30 degrees right along the coast. Lastly, a moderate risk of rip currents is in effect today, with a low risk following for tonight. /12/26 SHORT TERM /Tuesday Through Wednesday night/...A fairly deep upper trof over the southeastern states moves off into the western Atlantic through Tuesday night while a large, cold dome of surface high pressure continues to build into the eastern states. Another upper trof advances from the northwest states and amplifies while moving into the Plains Wednesday night, meanwhile phasing with a series of southern stream shortwaves to form a large upper trof over the central states. A surface low forms in response over the southern Plains on Wednesday and begins to advance eastward along the Red River valley while the eastern states surface ridge begins to retreat from the region. While a dry forecast continues through Wednesday night, this results in light northerly winds over the forecast area becoming easterly on Wednesday and allowing for a warming trend to ensue. Highs on Tuesday will be only in the mid to upper 40s with modest improvement for Wednesday when highs will be in the lower 50s. Lows Tuesday night range from the mid 20s inland to the lower 30s at the immediate coast. Lows Wednesday night will be near seasonable values and range from the mid 30s well inland to the lower 40s at the coast. /29 LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...The central states upper trof is expected to evolve into an upper low near the mid Mississippi River valley by Friday which continues eastward across the interior eastern states and eventually into the western Atlantic on Sunday. The surface low advances from the Red River valley to across the central Gulf coast region Thursday night before continuing to the mid Atlantic coast Friday night. This system will support pops increasing to likely over the western half of the area on Thursday followed by categorical pops for the entire area Thursday night. Pops taper off to dry conditions by Friday evening with a dry forecast following through Sunday as a surface high builds into the region in the wake of the low pressure system. Instability continues to look rather limited although some isolated embedded thunderstorms will be possible over the marine area Thursday night and generally over the western Florida panhandle Friday morning. /29 MARINE...Moderate to strong northerly winds will persist into Tuesday as surface high pressure builds into the southeast from the northwest. Although, seas will begin to decrease through the day today, becoming 4 to 6 feet by this evening. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for northern Mobile Bay remains in effect until noon today, but the SCA for Southern Mobile Bay, Mississippi Sound, and the coastal waters remains in effect until noon Tuesday. A light to moderate easterly flow will then develop Wednesday; however, winds will strengthen slightly and become more southeasterly by Thursday as another cold front approaches from the west. Light to moderate northwest flow will develop in the wake of this front on Friday. /26 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for GMZ631-632-650- 655-670-675. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ630. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob