659 FXUS63 KEAX 181150 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 550 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020 .Discussion... Issued at 321 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2020 The main concerns in the short term will revolve around a cold front that is moving through the area early this morning and the hazards associated with it. The first concern will be for an additional burst of wintry precipitation in the form of snow or sleet early this morning. Behind the cold front temperatures will drop quickly as strong CAA will affect the area. This will drop temperatures quickly this morning with all locations moving below freezing by noon. With temperatures dropping so quickly there will be the potential for flash freezing of any wet roads or other surfaces. In addition, winds will be very strong behind the cold front with most locations gusting out of the NW to 30 to 40 mph. Some areas near the MO/IA border may gust near wind advisory criteria and as such winds will be monitored closely if one is necessary. Wind chill values will also be very cold today with most locations in the single digits and teens through the day. Tonight winds will subside somewhat as high pressure resides across the Plains. Clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the single digits and teens. Factor in the modest northwest winds and wind chill values will drop into the single digits below zero north of Highway 36 to the single digits above zero south of that. The coldest days of the winter thus far will occur on Sunday and Monday as a 1042mb high builds into the area. Highs both day will range from the upper single digits to the north to the mid 20s across the south. Wind chill values Monday morning will range for the teens below zero to the north to the single digits south. A wind chill advisory may be necessary Monday morning for northern Missouri. Temperatures begin to moderate on Tuesday as high pressure finally shifts east and height rises build into the region. This will allow temperatures to return to near normal with highs in the mid 20s north to upper 30s south. Models in the extended period are in agreement that moisture will stream back into the area on Wednesday morning ahead of a upper level trough digging into the Four Corners region providing a round of wintry precipitation before temperatures warm during the day Wednesday. However, models have significant difference in regards to how they handle the upper level trough. The EC has a much more progressive pattern where temperature remain warmer and precipitation come to an end on Thursday. The GFS on the other hand deepens the trough over the Four Corners region and and then slowly moves in through the southern Plains and finally through the local area Friday/Friday night. This solution would allow for a prolonged period of rain with occasional mixing through the second have of the work week. The GFS solution would then produce a deformation area on the back side of the trough where snow would be possible. With large differences through this period, confidence is low in the going forecast but this system will need to be monitored. && .Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning) Issued at 550 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2020 MVFR cigs are affecting the TAF sites this morning however, the back edge of this cloud deck is evident on satellite across northeastern Kansas. This deck will continue to move east allowing conds to become VFR by 15Z-16Z. Otrw...expected VFR conds thru the remainder of the TAF pd. The other concern for aviators this TAF cycle will be the strong and gusty NW winds. Expect NW winds around 20kts with gusts around 30kts thru 00Z when winds will diminish to 10 to 15kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for MOZ001>008- 011>017. && $$ Discussion...73 Aviation...73