264 
FXUS64 KAMA 180958
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
358 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2020

.DISCUSSION (today through Friday)...

Overview: 

1) Roundup of the next 7 days:

Looks like a nice weekend across the Panhandles with mostly clear 
skies, relatively light wind speeds, and temperatures near normal. 
We will continue these conditions into Monday to start next week. 
Tuesday is when the forecast starts to have at least some potential 
impacts across the region; however, for now it appears a very low 
end chance for snowfall. The better chance for snowfall will be the 
Wednesday night and Thursday night periods. Timing and location is 
very uncertain at this time, but we are looking at the potential for 
at least some accumulating snowfall. 

2) Potential Impacts:

* Hazardous driving conditions possible mid to late next week. 
  Overall, the best chance for impacts will be Wednesday night and 
  Thursday night. 
* Blowing snow/visibility restriction Thursday if snowfall lingers
  into the daytime/afternoon hours; northerly winds around 20-25 
  mph.

3) Location: 

* Through mid to late next week the combined Panhandles are all in 
  play at this time.  

4) Confidence (Low/Moderate/High):

* Tues Night: Low
* Wed night/Thur Night: Low but starting to lean towards moderate. 


More detailed information for impactful weather:

1) Mid/Late Next Week Snowfall Potential: 

Model agreement goes down the toilet pretty quickly Tuesday night, 
and hence the reason for overall low confidence in snowfall amounts, 
timing, and location. Models all essentially try to develop a strong 
dynamic system sometime middle of next week, but the eastward 
progression through the region differs quite a bit from one another. 
The resulting surface cyclogenesis varies widely across the Plains. 
Spread between ensemble members for QPF is pretty large as well, but 
many members are showing some QPF, so we could be looking at mostly 
rainfall if the timing of the precipitation coincides with the 
warmer part of the day. In other words, it is way too early to say 
with any confidence whether we will see snowfall, and if so...how 
much and where will the snowfall occur. The forecast will reflect a 
rain/snow chance during the mid week periods until we can refine 
those details further. We have seen some consistency with snowfall 
potential, so one can start to have a little more confidence if 
trends continue. 

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$