522 FXUS61 KBTV 180803 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 303 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020 .SYNOPSIS... After one last very cold morning, temperatures will begin to warm today as a low pressure system approaches from the southwest. The system will send a warm front through later today, resulting in widespread snowfall over the region. The heaviest snow will fall late this evening into the first part of tonight, before tapering off through the day Sunday. Snowfall amounts will be between 3-7 inches with locally higher amounts across high terrain. Quieter weather with below normal temperatures is expected for the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 922 PM EST Friday...Temps continue to drop. Namely SLK, OGS, and MVL which are currently at -14F, -9F, and -11 respectively. Thus, have lowered minT and hourly temps accordingly. Although, oncoming cloud cover should allow the temps to level off through the overnight hours. Previous Discussion...A cold night is expected across the North Country tonight as high pressure crests over the area. Fresh snow pack coupled with calm winds should allow us to radiate out efficiently. Have trended towards MOS guidance with most locations dipping into the single digits below zero, with the coldest hollows such as Saranac Lake and Island Pond approaching -20F. Southerly winds will increase Saturday morning which will warm temperatures quickly into the teens/mid 20s by Saturday afternoon. Winds on Saturday will be out of the south/southeast around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt along the western slopes of the Greens and Adirondacks and the Champlain Valley. Little changes have been made to the forecast for the system Saturday into Sunday. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect beginning Saturday afternoon through 21z Sunday. The main tweak to the forecast was to adjust snow totals up slightly areawide as low pressure is expected to cross the North Country before the secondary low develops along the Maine coastline Sunday morning. With the track of the low slightly further south, the main core of the low level jet will also remain south of the area therefore shadowing effects should be less than previously thought. Everything remains on track for snowfall to overspread from SW to NE quickly between 2- 4 PM Saturday along the axis of 850mb thermal advection. Within this band of heavier snow, snowfall rates may exceed 1" per hour at times. This band will traverse northward through the overnight hours with the heaviest snows expected between 4PM Saturday and 1AM Sunday. Snow ratios should generally be around 11-13:1 with good saturation within the DGZ. Higher snow ratios may be possible in any mesoscale banding that develops. Snow total amounts will be between 3-7 inches with the highest amounts across St Lawrence County & the Northeast Kingdom, and locally higher amounts across the higher terrain. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 303 AM EST Saturday...Evening snow showers then wane and end overnight Sunday as eastward extension of polar high pressure across the Northern Plains settles across the region. Still some lingering clouds, but a trend toward partly cloudy conditions by sunrise Monday still appears reasonable at this point. Low temperatures near seasonable mid-winter norms in the single digits. Then partly cloudy and quiet on Monday as aforementioned high pressure continues to build slowly east. High temperatures seasonably cold in the teens to locally near 20 in broader southern valleys. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 303 AM EST Saturday...A welcome break in active weather then looks to continue for most of the work week as high pressure becomes anchored across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. A glancing blow by another polar front Monday night may spark a few northern mountain flurries, otherwise partly cloudy skies and dry weather are expected over the 5 day period with a gradual warming trend. Highs on Tuesday similar to Monday in the teens, then 20s for Tuesday and 30s from Wednesday onward as modified air of Pacific origin bridges across the CONUS. Some suggestion that another system may affect the region toward next weekend but confidence is low at this point with a broad lack of consensus among medium range guidance so just lower end chance pops will be offered by next Saturday. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z Sunday...High clouds will continue to spread over the forecast area, thickening and lowering through the TAF period. Expect all TAF sites to remain VFR through 18Z. Snow will spread northeastward from NY through VT after 18Z, accompanied by reduced visibilities and ceilings to the MVFR/IFR range. Some localized LIFR conditions are possible after 00Z, especially at KSLK and KRUT where bands of snow will be heaviest. Winds are generally terrain driven overnight, before shifting to the south at 5 to 10 knots after 12Z, except northeast at MSS and southeast at 10 to 15 knots at KRUT. As a low level jet strengthens toward 00z Sun, expect areas of turbulence and shear to increase across our TAF sites. Outlook... Sunday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SN, Chance SHSN. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Martin Luther King Jr Day: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Sunday for VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Sunday for NYZ026>031-034-035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Duell NEAR TERM...Hammond/LaRocca SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Duell