092 FXUS64 KBMX 162353 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 553 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2020 .UPDATE... Aviation Update. && .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 0224 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2020/ The long awaited change in air mass has finally occurred over Alabama, but the pesky clouds and rain will not retreat. A trof over the eastern United States has pushed a cold front to the northwest Florida coastline. However, southwest flow over the southern Plains States was advecting mid to high level moisture northeastward towards Alabama. Alabama/Mississippi are in the convergent zone between the eastern trof and southern trof, and light rain has developed over central Mississippi this afternoon. The leading edge of the light rain has reached Lamar and Pickens counties, and decided to introduce sprinkles through 9 pm. The rain will encounter drier below 850mb, and probably not be enough to measure. The combination of clouds and north surface winds overnight will keep temperatures warmer than numerical guidance is forecasting. 58/rose .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0255 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2020/ Friday through Thursday. Ridging builds across the region Friday, which will provide for subsidence across Central AL, keeping the area rain-free for much of the day. Meanwhile, a trough dip through the Central Plains and a surface low lifts through the Upper Plains and into the Upper Midwest with a cold front stretching southward. A pre-frontal shortwave will lift through southern TX and into the Mid-MS Valley late Friday night into Saturday morning. This will bring in at least some chances for rain, mainly after midnight Friday in the northwestern counties. The cold front slides southeastward through our area on Saturday, leading to widespread rain, though models have trended lower on the coverage in recent runs due to a general decrease in frontal forcing as the main surface low occludes over the Great Lakes. Instability remains limited with this system, so I will continue to omit chances of thunder in the forecast. The cold front pushes south and east of our area overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning, ending any rain chances for Central AL. A thermally-induced high pressure system slides southeastward through the Upper Plains and into the Southeastern CONUS behind the front. The first half of next week will be much colder than the past few weeks with lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s to low 50s. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Discussion. VFR flight conditions expected through this forecast period. A weak upper level wave moving across the area tonight will produce mid to high level clouds, and a few sprinkles. Coverage and likelihood of rain making it to the ground is low, and will not include precipitation or vis restrictions in the forecast. Given the dry air in place near the surface and elevated winds overnight, fog is not expected. Northerly winds at 6 to 10kts this evening will diminish slightly overnight and veer to the ENE to E Friday morning. Winds will continue to veer through the day, becoming southeasterly Friday afternoon. Speeds will remain at or below 10kts at most terminals. At MGM and TOI, winds will be slightly stronger with gusts up to 18kts. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... A colder and drier air mass will settle over Alabama tonight, but high level clouds will blanket the area through Friday. Some sprinkles are possible across west Alabama this evening, but probably not enough to measure. Showers will return to central Alabama Friday night and Saturday as another cold front moves through the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 38 57 42 60 33 / 0 10 40 80 40 Anniston 40 58 43 61 36 / 0 0 30 80 50 Birmingham 41 58 48 62 37 / 10 10 40 80 40 Tuscaloosa 44 61 49 66 37 / 10 10 40 90 30 Calera 42 59 46 62 37 / 10 10 30 80 40 Auburn 44 57 45 61 42 / 0 0 10 70 50 Montgomery 46 62 49 67 43 / 0 10 10 70 50 Troy 47 62 50 67 46 / 0 0 10 70 50 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$