659 FXUS63 KGID 151753 AFDGID AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Hastings NE 1153 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 414 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 Though overall it's been a quiet night across the area, low level stratus and fog are once again creating issues. In the upper levels, continuing to see mainly zonal flow in place across the region, with satellite imagery showing a shortwave disturbance making its way into the central Dakotas. At the surface, the accompany cold front has pushed through western NE and the NW winds have moved into the NWrn portions of our CWA. Ahead of the front, winds remain light/variable. As expected, last evening low level stratus blossomed northward across the area, and the CWA has been sitting under sub-500ft ceilings for several hours now. Thankfully, any drizzle that developed during the evening had little impact...and currently the main issue lies with visibility reductions thanks to fog. Winds from west to east will continue to turn to the NW with time, but it'll be a few hours yet before the stronger speeds arrive, and start helping diminish the fog issues. Dense Fog Adv currently goes until 7AM, will leave as is for now, but by sunrise will likely be able to get rid of a good chunk of it, if not all of it. Otherwise, the forecast through the short term period of today/tonight remains dry. Models are in good agreement showing the generally zonal flow aloft continuing, and outside of some increasing upper level clouds late tonight, skies should be mostly clear. At the surface, as stated above the main cold frontal boundary will continue to slide east across the area this morning, ushering in at times gusty NW winds. Expecting it to be on the breezy side for a decent part of the day, esp across the eastern half of the CWA. Didn't make significant changes to highs for today, which will be a downward step from yesterday thanks to the colder airmass/NWrly winds...forecast highs range from the lower 20s in the north to mid- upper 30s in the south. Main change tonight was to lower overnight lows a touch. With the mostly clear skies expected to linger into much of the overnight period and diminishing winds as sfc high pressure settles into the area, forecasting single digits for most locations. In the north, lows just below zero are forecast, with right around 10 in the south. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 414 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 The main concern through the long term period remains in the late- in- the-day Thursday through Friday night time frame. In the grand scheme of things there hasn't been any big changes in the most recent models runs, but unfortunately there continues to be plenty of uncertainties due to the model differences that linger. Models remain in good agreement in the broader view, showing upper level flow turning more southwesterly during the daytime hours on Thursday. The pattern across the CONUS amplifies, with ridging building northward through the central CONUS and quickly shifting east of the area, as the main trough axis pushes further in from the West Coast. There really isn't much change in that flow until late in the day Friday and more into Friday evening/night, when the main trough axis finally pushes east through the Plains. Most, if not all, of the daytime hours on Thursday are expected to be dry. There is some uncertainty in that 21-00Z period, and kept the small area of slight chance PoPs in the far southern areas. Models are in good agreement showing increasing southerly low level flow/WA/moisture advection across the region out ahead of that main trough axis, along with a 110+kt upper level jet streak nosing in from the SW. Precipitation may start creeping into far southern areas late Thursday afternoon, but the better chances by far come after 00Z Friday...and continue into into at least the first half of the day Friday. There looks like there maybe a bit of a lull in activity at some point during the day Friday, in between the better southerly flow/lift...which is shoved east by the approaching main trough...and the passage of that trough axis itself. Models still showing activity ending by 12Z Saturday. The big question continues to be with the thermal profiles through the event. Models continue to show the potential a lower level 'warm nose' lifting north with time Thursday night into Friday, but just how warm it is and the impact it has on precipitation type still have plenty of uncertainties. At this point, forecast grids are carrying snow to start off, with increasing potential for freezing rain mixing in with time from south to north, but am concerned at least some areas would have more in the way of sleet than is currently forecast. The GFS continues to be on the warmer side with those temps just off the sfc than other models, bringing that better potential for FZRA than others which would have more sleet/snow. Then further into the daytime hours on Friday, again depending on which model solution ends up being correct, there is the potential that temps could rise enough to switch things over to liquid for at least southern portions of the CWA, if not the entire CWA. It's also during this period that there is a bit of a lull in things, so it's possible that precip turns to more DZ/FZDZ (dep. on sfc temps), before then main trough axis moves through Friday night. As far as amounts go...current forecast total liquid equivalent amounts range from around 0.1" in the far west, to near 0.5" in the east. Snow and ice amounts didn't change notably...snow ranges from around 0.5" west to 2.0" east...and ice totals are currently under 0.1". Still many finer details to iron out with those temperature profiles, so have little doubt all of these amounts will change at least a little. Outside of another small chance of precipitation returning late Tuesday night-Wednesday, the rest of the long term period remains dry. Expect windy/breezy conditions to develop Friday night and linger into the daytime hours on Saturday, as that main upper trough pushes a strong cold front through the region. Gusty NW winds develop across the entire area, sustained speeds of 20-25 MPH and gusts over 30 MPH seem likely...diminishing with time during the afternoon on Saturday. Lighter winds are expected through mid- week. As far as temperatures go Saturday-Tuesday...currently have upper 20s to near 40 in for highs on Saturday, but think those will trend down in the coming days. Sunday highs are cooler, with Monday currently forecast to be the coldest day of the long term period, with mid-upper teens in the northeast to right around 30 in the southwest. May rebound back into the 20s-30s for Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Thursday) Issued at 1151 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2020 Wind will be the biggest issue for this forecast behind a cold front that passed through during the early morning. The surface pressure gradient will continue to decrease today and wind speeds will gradually decrease as well as sunset approaches. VFR conditions are expected for the entire forecast. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ADP LONG TERM...ADP AVIATION...Heinlein