042 FXUS64 KMEG 141749 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 1149 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020 .UPDATE... Updated for 18Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 557 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020/ DISCUSSION... Updated for the aviation discussion PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 459 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2020/ Regional radar currently depicts a line of showers and thunderstorms moving eastward across northern Mississippi this AM. Rain and thunderstorms will generally remain confined to northern Mississippi today. There have been a few strong storms overnight, some of which have produced some small hail. This threat has since passed so will remove from HWO. The latest GOES Nighttime Microphysics shows areas of patchy fog across the Mid- South. However, a developing stratus deck streaming in from the southwest has prevented fog from becoming dense at this time. Although, there are some areas of locally dense fog so use caution while driving this morning. Current temperatures range from upper 40s to the northwest and mid 60s southeast. The CWA currently remains in strong southwesterly flow aloft due to place between upper ridging to the southeast and upper trough to the northwest. With little synoptic movement showers and thunderstorms will persist along a nearly stationary boundary through Wednesday across the Mid-South. A Flash Flood Watch has been introduced across portions of northern Mississippi through 6 PM this evening. Soils are already saturated from recent rainfall especially south of I40. Rainfall totals between 1-2 inches are possible in this area. Models are still consistent in showing a colder airmass moving into the Mid-South on Wednesday night. A 1044mb high will be centered across the northern CONUS Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Upper ridging becomes amplified on Thursday resulting cooler temperatures and a brief respite in rain is likely on Thursday. High clouds will also begin moving into the region preventing afternoon heating across the area. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 40s to low 50s. Upper ridging and surface high pressure progress towards the East coast Thursday night resulting in an increase in southerly flow. As such...yep you guessed it...rain chances increase across the Mid- South on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain will exit the region by Saturday evening as upper troughing departs towards the Eastern CONUS. The latter half of the weekend will be much cooler with highs in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s to HWO 30s. For the time being, the extended forecast appears to be dry. An arctic airmass will begin to move into the region late Sunday/Monday. This will allow for a period of cooler temperatures and possibly below normal temperatures early next week. 17 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs GOES visible imagery showed IFR deck continuing to thin at midday. Expect JBR to see some improvement, with Crowley's Ridge showing through the stratus. Main concern remains the evening and overnight period. NAM model surface theta-e prog depicts a warm front lifting through MS overnight, arriving to MEM in the 13Z-14Z time frame. Isentropic lift ahead of this feature will likely result in drizzle, fog and IFR/LIFR ceilings until surface frontal passage. Thereafter, conditions should improve. Pre-warm frontal LIFR potential is reflected in the GFS LAMP guidance visibility, but guidance is likely too pessimistic following warm frontal passage. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$