932 FXUS62 KKEY 141000 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 500 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2020 .DISCUSSION... .CURRENTLY... Under partly cloudy skies and light east winds of 10 to occasionally 15 mph, temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s along the island chain. Meanwhile, local radars are only detecting isolated, small showers over the Florida Keys and the adjacent nearshore and surrounding offshore coastal waters of the island chain. On our marine district, winds are mainly east ranging from 11 knots at Smith Shoal Light to 20 knots at Sand Key Light. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night) A hefty and extensive area of high pressure will congeal over the Florida Peninsula and the adjacent Gulf and Atlantic waters over the next several days. This will result in significant large scale subsidence and even drier air, with forecast soundings revealing PWAT values of around .5 inches by this afternoon and continuing through Wednesday. Beyond that, despite a subtle increase in moisture, the nearby deep anticyclone will govern our sensible weather elements. With that, only isolated light showers will be kept for early this morning, otherwise, no measurable rainfall is anticipated for most of this week. Temperatures will remain about 10 degrees above normal through tonight, before some cooler and drier air filters in beginning Wednesday. && .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) A strong and expansive continental region of high pressure spreading from eastern Canada, equatorward through the Southeast United States, and down the Sunshine State will move swiftly southeastward and weaken through the weekend. By Sunday, a lengthy western Atlantic ridge axis will reaching into South Florida will retreat, as a decaying cold front approaches our area early next week. Despite moisture being limited to 800 mb and below, ample low level confluence will prompt isolated 10 to 20 percent pops through the period. High temperatures will average in the upper 70s to near 80 with overnight lows just above 70 degrees. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for the Florida Straits today, before winds slacken somewhat tonight, otherwise, an Exercise Caution Headline will be kept for Hawk Channel with near 15 knots north of the island chain. Moderate to occasional fresh east winds tonight, will decrease into the gentle to moderate range for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Thereafter, another wind surge is expected to overspread our marine district late Thursday night through Friday night, when a Small Craft Advisory may be hoisted for at least a portion of Keys coastal waters. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the island terminals through 15/12z. Other than occasional MVFR ceilings and VCSH this morning, skies will be mostly clear. Winds remain out of the E to ESE near 10 knots with occasional higher gusts. && .CLIMATE... In 1981, the daily record low temperature of 47 degrees was recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 72 78 71 / - - - - Marathon 83 72 79 71 / - - - - && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...APA Aviation/Nowcasts....WLC Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest