633 FXUS63 KFGF 132035 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 235 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 211 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2020 The main impacts for the short term period will be snow across portions of northwest and west central Minnesota tonight. There will be typical winter weather impacts with the falling snow...with the greatest impacts along and east of a Wadena- Fosston-Warroad line. Generally 1 to 3 inches of snow are expected, with locally higher amounts possible in Lake of the Woods and Beltrami counties. The threat for blowing or drifting snow is very low, so we are primarily looking at snow covered roads and some reduced visibilities during the late evening hours. An upper wave coupled with a surface trough moving east across the area tonight will help develop snow across northern Minnesota as a surface low moves from eastern South Dakota into northeastern Minnesota. Q-vector convergence across Minnesota will provide synoptic lift primarily in the 03Z to 09Z timeframe, when the greatest snowfall rates can be expected. The most impactful snowfall should move east of the area by 12Z, with lingering light snow across northwest Minnesota and eastern North Dakota through noon. Little impacts expected within and west of the valley, generally seeing a light dusting up to one inch. Colder air filters in behind this system, with falling to steady temperatures through the day tomorrow. Highs will range from around zero in the far west to 20 in the far east. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 211 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2020 For mid-week into the weekend, the main story will be a chance for light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday followed by another shot of bitterly cold arctic air. For the end of the week into the weekend, focus will be on a larger system that will impact the Midwest and Northern Plains. Travel impacts are anticipated with both snow chances. Frostbite and hypothermia with excessive exposure outside are also of concern with the bitterly cold air. Tuesday Night through Wednesday Light snow accumulations are expected due to a 500mb shortwave that develops on the lee side of the Rockies and progresses towards the Dakotas and up towards Ontario. The wave comes with the fast-moving surface low. The Canadian CMCE and American GEFS ensembles both key on QPF totals of 0.10 inches or greater south of Highway 200 with a general light accumulation across much of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. Global deterministic solutions bring more of a broad area with lesser confidence on location of higher totals. Nevertheless, the main story will be generally light accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across much of the area with some higher totals possible. In addition to the light snow, winds of 20 mph with gusts to near 30 mph could cause patchy blowing snow, especially in open country. Some travel impacts are possible with this combination of light snowfall and persistent winds. Conditions improve later on Wednesday. Wednesday Night through Thursday Night Following the fast-moving system, attention turns to another shot of dangerous bitter cold for Wednesday night through Thursday night. This cold snap comes with an arctic surface high that will drop temperatures well below zero for a 24 to 36 hour period. Thursday morning will be the worst of the cold with a large area of -20 to - 25 for lows confirmed by global ensemble and deterministic model solutions. With a persistent northwest wind into Thursday morning, widespread wind chills below -30 look likely with some areas in northeastern North Dakota approaching -45. Wind chills of these levels could cause frostbite to exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. Highs of 0 to -10 for highs will be common for Thursday. A southerly shift in winds will improve temperatures slightly ahead of the next storm system. Friday through Monday For the end of the week, a larger and more vigorous storm system comes into focus. The forcing mechanism will be a developing Colorado Low with wide-reaching synoptic support. Confidence is beginning to increase in a track from Colorado towards Missouri and then to the Great Lakes into Saturday. This track is confirmed by most ensemble members and global deterministic model solutions. Confidence is still low on exact amounts or specific locations, but PWAT values from Gulf moisture returns indicated by NAEFS and M- Climate percentiles suggest southeast North Dakota towards central Minnesota will have increased moisture than areas further north and west. The I-94 corridor looks to be closer to the best synoptic forcing and moisture content indicated by model guidance. However, accumulating snow across all of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota looks increasingly likely Friday into Saturday morning. In addition to the accumulating snowfall, a tight surface pressure gradient also suggests a persistent northwesterly wind that could cause concern for blowing snow. Travel impacts are likely Friday into Saturday due to accumulating snow and persistent northwesterly winds. Following this system will be another shot of arctic air with more chances for flurries. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1141 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2020 Currently, IFR is being reported at GFK, BJI, and FAR with LIFR at DVL. TVF is at MVFR but can expect deterioration to IFR later into the evening. For precipitation, flurries are possible across the area with light snow east of the Red River towards TVF and BJI tonight. Lingering snow is expected to taper off before sunrise. Flight conditions should improve to MVFR and eventually VFR after 1200Z tomorrow at the TAF sites. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Speicher LONG TERM...Lynch/Wasilewski AVIATION...Speicher/Wasilewski