055 FXUS61 KCLE 130922 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 422 AM EST Mon Jan 13 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A weak low moving across the central Great Lakes early this morning will give way to high pressure for the afternoon. Low pressure will track across the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Upper Lakes between Monday night and Tuesday and will bring a warm front northeast across the local area Tuesday and take a cold front across Tuesday evening. Low pressure will track across the lower Great Lakes Wednesday night with cool high pressure to follow in its wake to end the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... A weak system is moving across the central Great Lakes early this morning and its warm advection is squeezing out some very light precipitation across northwest OH and out across the lake. Light snow has been the primary precipitation type being reported at TOL and nearby stations. Have a mention of a flurry or sprinkle across the area centered on this morning. The upper trough pulls away by midday and surface high pressure will be building across the region. Other than northwest OH, temperatures are starting out in the mid/upper 30s. Will aim for the middle of guidance for highs in the lower/mid 40s. Quiet tonight with high pressure. Still have a fair amount of cloud cover. Between the residual lower decks and then the approach of mid clouds from the next system by morning, forecast will continue to read mostly cloudy, but dry. Temperatures will only fall back to the low/mid 30s (near normal highs). The next low will track across the upper Midwest and east across the Great Lakes between Monday night and Tuesday. This will lift a warm front across the local area early Tuesday and we will see temperatures warm above 50 degrees. Mentioned some sprinkles or light rain, but overall moisture and forcing continues to be limited with this system. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A weak cold front will follow Tuesday evening as the low tracks eastward across the northern Great Lakes. Continued lack of moisture and source of lift will limit the precipitation chances over the area, resulting in primarily dry conditions persisting through Wednesday morning. Models become inconsistent with handling the next low pressure system that develops Wednesday afternoon along the edge of a shortwave in the Midwest. The GFS and ECMWF both have the low developing and tracking to the northeast with the center track just north of Lake Erie. The ECMWF shows the low deepening more as it moves through the area. Staying consistent with prior forecasts and the model uncertainty, have opted for chance pops across the area. High pressure will build over the area from the north for Thursday. Low temperatures overnight Tuesday will be in the mid to low 30s. Highs on Wednesday will approach 50 across the area. Thursday will see high temperatures in the mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will persist through Friday over the area. The next primary focus is on the strong low pressure that will impact the area this weekend. Although there is still a lot of uncertainty about the development of this system, models suggest a low pressure system that develops in the Central Plains will track eastward and deepen over the Great Lakes region on Saturday. The models are suggestive of a negatively tilted trough associated with this low which may favor more strengthening of the low than currently depicted. The warm sector looks to dominate the area for much of Saturday as southerly winds usher in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will keep the primary precipitation type to rain, although some mixed precipitation as the system approaches cannot be ruled out. With overall synoptic pattern, lifting, and moisture, chance pops are forecasted. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the mid to upper 40s. The low pressure will move off the New England coast on Sunday morning. Behind this low, colder and more average temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Widespread MVFR ceilings across the area will remain for the overnight. IFR is located across northwest OH including TOL/FDY. Do not expect much eastward expansion although did mention some IFR in a TEMPO for MFD. There is a weak system lifting across the Great Lakes presently and this has produced some very light precipitation. TOL has reported light snow. But temperatures are expected to hold or slightly rise toward morning. Therefore we should either have flurries or sprinkles. Overall ceilings for the daylight hours will hold fairly steady a little on either side of 2K feet. Improvement to VFR may happen toward 06Z TUE. Light east winds will veer to south-southwest and west- southwest by the end of the TAF period. .OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Non- VFR Wednesday into Thursday. && .MARINE... Light winds out of the east this morning will veer to westerly winds by this afternoon as a ridge passes over the lake. A warm front will lift north over the lake on Tuesday, shifting the winds to be from the south at 10 knots. This will quickly change as a cold front moves across the lake Tuesday night and winds shift to be westerly and 10 to 15 knots. Low pressure will move across the lake Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing stronger winds from the northwest on Thursday into Thursday night. Thursday is likely the next time there is a potential for a small craft advisory on Lake Erie. Winds will subside on Friday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Oudeman NEAR TERM...Oudeman SHORT TERM...Campbell LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...Oudeman MARINE...Campbell