033 FXUS63 KICT 130533 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1133 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 334 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 A quick hitting shortwave continues to make progress across northern KS today, with some freezing drizzle mainly across northern KS but as far south as I-70. Lots of low clouds associated with the system as it streaks east for the afternoon hours. As the shortwave moves east this evening, not expecting much of a wind shift in its wake. Previous thoughts were that cloud cover and low level moisture would move east with the shortwave tonight, but latest short range model solutions and ensemble progs suggest that the low level moisture will remain high, especially in areas with snow cover (Southeast KS). This would suggest either low clouds and possibly areas of fog may continue or develop across the Flint Hills late tonight through early Mon morning. Think the models may be overdoing the low level moisture some, due to feedback from snow cover input, but plan on leaving lots of cloud cover for east sections of the forecast through Mon morning. Will also include areas of fog for the Flint Hills as well. Not completely sure if the fog will go dense overnight, due to uncertainty on low level moisture. As temps stay in the middle 20s overnight, could also see some freezing fog as well. Could see quite a minimum temp gradient across the forecast area overnight, as portions of central KS may clear out with some radiational cooling leading to min temps falling into the teens in central KS. Expect middle 20s for lows elsewhere. Expect a brief warm up on Monday, as the next quick hitting shortwave moves across the northern plains. Temperatures may be a little tricky with morning clouds, but still expect a nice warmup. Any precipitation with this next system will stay well to the north of the area, but as this system moves east, another surge of colder air will drop south into the area for Tue and especially on Wed. Ketcham .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 334 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 The secondary cold surge on Wed afternoon will be one to keep an eye for the middle of the week. This secondary cold surge will push temperatures back down below seasonal normals for Wed night and Thu, which may have a big impact on precipitation type for Thu night or early on Fri. Latest GFS and to a lessor degree the ECMWF shows a nice moisture surge, over the top of the shallow cold air, for Thu night thru early on Fri. This may lead to a wintry mix of freezing rain/light snow for portions of central Ks and the eastern half of KS for late thu night or Fri morning. Strong warm advection over the top of the shallow cold air, will lead to a race between the warmer air aloft and the shallow cold air warming, which may lead to a wintry mess for late Thu night or during the morning hours on Fri. Medium range models never seem to handle the shallow cold air very well, so went with a mix of freezing rain and light snow for portions of central KS for late Thu night through early Fri. As mentioned before, not alot of confidence in the temperature profile until the models come to a better agreement. Stay Tuned. Ketcham && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1128 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 Areas of fog and freezing fog are expected through much of the night with CNU likely to see the lowest visibilities during the night. Fog is also expected to move into the SLN, HUT and ICT terminals at times tonight but will not be as dense as it will be in Eastern Kansas. By mid morning the fog will dissipate with CNU likely to hold onto the fog the longest. By the end of the TAF period the clouds will come back into the region and will likely bring ceilings back down into the MVFR and IFR categories. Metzger && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 25 53 28 51 / 0 0 0 0 Hutchinson 23 51 24 49 / 0 0 0 0 Newton 26 50 26 48 / 0 10 0 0 ElDorado 25 51 29 49 / 0 10 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 27 54 30 52 / 0 0 0 0 Russell 22 49 21 46 / 0 0 0 0 Great Bend 23 53 21 49 / 0 10 0 0 Salina 21 49 23 47 / 0 10 0 0 McPherson 23 49 23 48 / 0 10 0 0 Coffeyville 30 55 34 55 / 0 0 0 0 Chanute 28 53 31 51 / 0 0 0 0 Iola 27 53 31 51 / 0 0 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 30 54 34 53 / 0 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Monday for KSZ053-069>072- 094>096. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ketcham LONG TERM...Ketcham AVIATION...ELM