696 FXUS63 KGID 121726 AFDGID AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Hastings NE 1126 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 336 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 Cloud cover is increasing early this morning as a quick- moving shortwave approaches the area. Radar imgry has been picking up these clouds, but cloud bases are still around 10kft and nothing is reaching the ground yet. Precipitation is expected to begin between 6am and noon as lift increases and the low levels become more saturated. The predominant precip type will be light snow, but the HRRR and RAP are hinting at the potential for some freezing drizzle at times as we lose saturation aloft. This is in contrast to the GFS and NAM which keep the column saturated and therefore produce all snow. Ultimately, I decided to side with the HRRR/RAP solution and added some freezing drizzle to the more favorable southeastern portions of the forecast area. I don't think this will be very impactful, though. Total snow amounts have trended down slightly with most of the latest model runs. Interestingly, the ECMWF, which had previously been one of the drier models, did trend upward slightly on its QPF amounts. Even still, total snow amounts are generally expected to be less than an inch and many locations will only see flurries or a light dusting. Areas along/west of Highway 183 might not see anything at all. Snow will exit the area by this evening and skies will start to clear, but cloud cover will increase again towards Monday morning as another moisture-staved wave moves towards the area. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 336 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 The approach of the next shortwave will bring slightly stronger south winds on Monday, allowing temperatures to return to the 30s and 40s. After this wave passes through, Tuesday will be a few degrees cooler than Monday, but still not bad for mid January. Another disturbance is forecast to move through on Wednesday. Again, this shouldn't produce any precipitation in the local area, but it will advect in some cooler air with gusty northwest winds. Highs are forecast to range from the mid 20s to upper 30s. Temperatures will be similar on Thursday, but southerly winds are forecast to return as a deeper trough moves onto the west coast. In the warm-air advection ahead of this system, we will likely see a mix of rain and snow across the eastern half of Nebraska and Kansas Thursday night into Friday morning. Temperatures are tricky with this system, and we could actually see mostly rain and rising temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning. On Friday, we should see the cold front move through and a better chance for accumulating snow. Overall, uncertainty is still pretty high with this system, but it is something to watch. Temperatures are expected to be seasonable on Saturday behind this system. Colder weather appears to arrive in the Sunday/Monday timeframe, though. The GFS and Euro both bring a strong surface high into the area, but disagree a bit on the timing. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday) Issued at 1119 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020 Ceilings starting to drop to MVFR/IFR which is patchy in nature so do not have a good feel for when TAF sites will be impacted. If Lower ceilings do move in, -SN with some patchy -FZBR/ -FZDZ possible, reports around the area is it is pretty light. Winter precip is expected to move out of the area this afternoon and ceilings to begin to rise once the low pressure moves out. Overnight models hinting at fog/ IFR ceilings so will hedge with 3SM and SCT003 for now. If stratus does move into the area, it looks to hang around until mid day. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mangels LONG TERM...Mangels AVIATION...Beda