297 FXUS61 KPHI 120813 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 313 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Strong low pressure in Ohio this evening will move across New York and New England through Sunday. An attached strong cold front will cross our area early Sunday morning. High pressure will build in behind it for early next week. A weak low will move across Delmarva Monday night and Tuesday. A stronger low will affect the region next Wednesday and into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... An initial line of showers is crossing our region early this morning. While the main focus was on the secondary line further west with the front, that secondary line is starting to dissipate so may not be much of an impact for our region. So far it appears that the nocturnal inversion is rather robust as most of the wind gusts at the surface have been less than 40 mph, with a few reports of 40 to 50 mph, mostly associated with the showers or located just along the coast. The showers should shift off shore within a few hours after sunrise. Once that happens, the main story will be the gusty southwesterly winds. At this point, kept the wind advisory as is. However, as mentioned above, we have a few coastal sites near wind advisory criteria now. If these trends continue, may need to expand the wind advisory to include coastal locations and those near the Delaware Bay as well. we will continue to monitor for the next few hours. As for temperatures today, the daily high temperatures are likely to be reached before sunrise. In fact, 3 of our climate sites have already set or tied new daily record highs, just with the temperatures through 2 AM (more on this in the climate section below). This is one of those days where the daily high will not accurately reflect the story as temperatures should be falling through the day time. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... The cold front that will cross the region today will stall south of our region. A low pressure system riding along the front could bring some light rain to portions of Delmarva late tonight. Otherwise, tranquil weather is expected for the rest of the region. Although temperatures tonight should still be 10 to 15 degrees above normal, it will be a stark departure from what we have seen the last two nights. Lows will be in the 30s for most of the region, with upper 20s possible across the higher terrain of the southern Poconos and northwest NJ, and lower 40s will be possible for the shore and portions of Delmarva. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... No significant changes to the long term forecast with this update. The Long Term will feature several weaker systems early, then a stronger system late next week and into next weekend. Temperatures will remain mostly above normal next week, but colder air will be moving towards the area Friday and the pattern beyond the long term looks to flip to cold (January- like!) for a change. Monday thru Monday night - Dry for much of the forecast area with high pressure building to the north. The front that moves through the area Sunday gets hung up south of the area Sunday night into Monday and a few waves of low pressure are expected to move along it. One moves through Monday and another early Tuesday. Both of these systems will bring more clouds and some small chc pops for Delmarva and perhaps up into srn NJ. Pops were not changed much from the earlier fcst. It will be warm enough for rain however. Tue/Tue night...The return flow behind the departing high will set up an opportunity for sct showers as a lingering front moves through and low pressure also moves across the Great Lakes region. Pops attm are in the high chc/low likely range. Temperatures will be warm enough to support rain across the area. The GFS and CMC models are quite a bit wetter with the system while the EC has only small areas of showers and minor QPF. Wednesday thru Thursday...Fair weather Wednesday. Another low deepens across the Great Lakes and sends a front across the area. Thursday. A new low develops along the front over the ocean and deepens rapidly. This will bring more chc for rains to the area along with gusty winds. Temperatures remain too warm for any snow most areas, although a little at the onset and towards the end are possible across the N/W areas. Thursday night thru Saturday - Fair weather Thursday night and Friday with perhaps sct snow showers across the Poconos. Another storm is expected to move across the region next weekend. Widely varied solutions presently, but all of the models show a significant low moving nearby with plenty of QPF expected. The EC/GFS move the low north while the CMC has a close approach (over the CWA). Just keeping chc pops in the fcst for now with plenty of timing/pop adjustments expected thru the week. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 12 Z...Mostly MVFR conditions are expected. Brief IFR conditions are possible, and we may start to see some improvement to VFR, especially closer to 12Z. A few rounds of showers are possible through 12Z. Gusts up to 35 kt will be possible through this time. Moderate confidence on the overall pattern. Today...Conditions should improve to VFR within a few hours after the cold front and line of showers has past. With the front, expect an abrupt shift to southwesterly winds, with gusts generally near or above 25 knots. For KRDG and KABE, gusts as high as 40 kt are possible. Moderate confidence on the overall pattern. Tonight...VFR conditions are expected. Wind should diminish quickly after 00Z, with northwesterly winds mostly 10 kt or less overnight. High confidence. Outlook... Mon/Mon night...VFR most areas. MVFR psbl across srn DE with showers possible. Tue/Tue night...MVFR/IFR possible in sct showers otherwise VFR. Wed...VFR expected. Thu...MVFR/IFR possible with sct showers. Gusty winds expected. && .MARINE... Gale force gusts are expected to continue on all the waters through at least mid day. This afternoon, winds should gradually diminish as they shift to more westerly and eventually northwesterly. However, SCA conditions for both winds and seas are likely to linger through the afternoon. By this evening, winds and waves should be below SCA criteria on the Delaware Bay. For the Atlantic coastal waters, elevated seas may linger for much, if not all of tonight. Patch fog has developed, primarily for the Delaware coastal waters. However, the fog should gradually dissipate as colder and drier air moves in. Outlook... Monday thru Wednesday night...Mostly sub-SCA. Fair Monday with only a few showers possible across the DE coastal and srn DE Bay waters. Sct showers Mon night thru Tue night and also Wed night. Fair Wed. Thursday...Gales probable. SCA or Gale for upper Delaware Bay. Rain. && .CLIMATE... All sites had record highs Saturday. So far for Sunday, KILG, KMPO and KABE have either tied or set a new record high already! Once the convection moves off shore, we will take another look and issue any record reports for sites that have already reached a record high. With temperatures falling through the day time, high temperatures are likely to be reached before sunrise. Here are the records for Sunday: Date KACY KPHL KILG KABE KTTN KGED KRDG KMPO 01-12 67|2017 72|1890 68|2017 65|2018 68|1890 70|1975 68|1975 59|2018 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ054-055- 060>062-070-071-101>106. NJ...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NJZ001-007>010- 012-015. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until noon EST today for ANZ430-431-450>455. && $$ Synopsis...O'Hara Near Term...Johnson Short Term...Johnson Long Term...O'Hara Aviation...Johnson/O'Hara Marine...Johnson/O'Hara Climate...