689 FXUS64 KAMA 111123 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 523 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF Cycle VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 12Z Sunday. Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots with gusts to near 20 knots this morning will become southwest to west 10 to 20 knots after 03Z to 06Z Sunday. Schneider && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 319 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020/ SHORT TERM...Today through tonight... Upper trough tracks east away from the Panhandles today as shortwave ridging builds in from the west. Upper ridge moves east tonight with upper flow becoming more zonal later today through tonight. Upper trough tracks eastward across the Rockies tonight and approaches the Panhandles by 12Z Sunday. Surface low develops to the lee of the Rockies today in Colorado with surface trough extending south across eastern New Mexico. Surface low and associated trough to move south and east into the forecast area by 12Z Sunday. North to northwest surface flow this morning becomes southwest and south by this afternoon through tonight. Generally clear skies today with increasing high level clouds tonight. Schneider LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday... The latest medium and long term guidance indicate a progressive upper level pattern, as several quick moving shortwaves pivot around larger scale trough anchored over the Great Basin. The current model runs are in decent agreement keeping the track of these shortwaves just north of the Panhandles, keeping the area dry slotted with enhanced lee troughing at the surface. In addition, weak cold fronts are expected in the wake of these shortwaves as they move across the plains (the first such case being Sunday). There are signals for a quick shot of colder air around Wednesday into Thursday, but up until then temperatures will be around or above average, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s or 40s. Monday looks to be a forecast target due to potential for windy conditions and possibly some elevated fire weather (see fire weather discussion below). Right now models and ensembles bring a shortwave across during the day with a compact but fairly strong 500mb and 700mb jet streak moving across the Panhandles. Mixing should be sufficient to support some gusty southwest winds possibly exceeding 40 mph in some locations. The next target looks to be Thursday. The latest 00z GFS and EC both show moisture riding over cold air left in wake of stronger front. This moisture return occurs in response to a more active southern stream flow. PoPs were not included in this forecast, but if the latest trends continue, precip chances will likely need to be added for Thursday in upcoming packages. Ward FIRE WEATHER... Elevate fire weather potential starts to increase Monday. Right now it looks like some breezy to windy conditions will develop Monday afternoon. The southwest (downslope) winds will aid in warming temperatures into the 60s, which in turn will result in min RH values of around 18 to 20 percent. This results in RFTI values around 1 to 3, especially in the northwestern combined Panhandles where winds are expected to be strongest (20 to 30 mph with gusts upwards of 40 mph). With the lack of any appreciable rain or snow recently, ERC percentiles will likely support elevated designation. The same is possible Tuesday and Wednesday as well (Wednesday will depend on the timing of a cold front). Ward && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 11/7