611 FXUS62 KFFC 102343 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 643 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020 .UPDATE... Updated for 00Z aviation discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 249 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2020/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/... Current radar loop shows showers beginning to develop across the southeastern U.S. as frontal system moves into the MS river valley. Southwesterly flow aloft is firmly in place over the southeastern states allowing steady warm air advection and moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico. Dewpoints have been steadily rising today and will continue as they rise into the mid 60s by Saturday afternoon. Precipitable water values are currently right around the 1 inch range and are expected to continue to rise into the 1.5 to 2 inch range through Saturday evening. Precipitation chances will also steadily increase, with isolated to scattered light showers the rest of the afternoon and into the evening hours, becoming heavier and more widespread overnight and into Saturday. The main surface low now developing over eastern TX/OK will quickly lift to the NE and push into the eastern Great Lakes by Saturday night/Sunday Morning. The cold front associated with this low will push into NW GA Saturday afternoon and continue moving SE through Sunday morning. This system still looks like a low-CAPE/High Sheer situation with low-level shear values in the 40-50 kts range and deep-layer shear in the 65-75 kts range. Everything still points to the potential for organized strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon and night ahead of the frontal boundary. Damaging wind gusts and brief tornadoes will be the primary hazards with any severe thunderstorms that occur. The warm and moist flow from the Gulf of Mexico will lead to continuously increasing temperatures as well. Highs Saturday are expected to be even warmer than today with temps 18-24 degrees above average with highs mainly in the 70s north to near 80s across central portions of the state. Low temperatures Saturday morning are also anticipated to be unseasonably warm due to the persistent warm air advection with reading in the 50s to near 60. 01 LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/... The long term portion of the forecast remains unsettled. Cold front that moves through tomorrow will likely stall across southern portions of Georgia by midday Sunday. This boundary will meander across the CWA through the early half of next week, serving as a focus for periods of showers and thunderstorms. Additional QPF amounts of one to three inches of rain area possible across the outlook area, with some locally higher amounts in the elevations of NE Georgia. The heavier rainfall axis will heavily depend upon exactly where the stationary boundary sets up. The stationary boundary begins to push north of the CWA by Wednesday as a cold front and low pressure system approach from the west. The low center looks to move into the Ohio River Valley, dragging the cold front through late Wednesday/early Thursday. High pressure briefly builds in for Friday. Temps well above normal through the period. NListemaa && .AVIATION... 00Z Update... Mainly VFR cigs at the taf sites now, but cigs should deteriorate to MVFR around 03-06Z, especially with any SHRA that may develop overnight. Some IFR cigs (mainly across northern sites) and SHRA may be possible in the afternoon ahead of a line of SHRA/TSRA that will impact the atl metro sites & CSG between 23-03Z and AHN/MCN around 02-06Z. Gusty winds will be possible with the passage of the line. Winds will be SE/S around 15 to 25 mph through much of the period before flipping SW around 23-02Z Sunday after the front moves through. Gusts around 30-35 mph will be possible on Saturday and with the line of storms. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium confidence on all elements. Reaves && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 57 72 53 67 / 60 90 90 30 Atlanta 59 70 51 64 / 60 90 90 20 Blairsville 52 66 45 63 / 80 100 100 10 Cartersville 58 71 48 63 / 60 100 90 10 Columbus 62 74 53 69 / 40 90 90 40 Gainesville 55 68 50 63 / 70 100 90 20 Macon 60 75 57 69 / 30 80 80 50 Rome 58 71 47 62 / 50 100 90 10 Peachtree City 59 72 50 66 / 50 90 90 30 Vidalia 61 79 65 74 / 30 50 70 40 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for the following zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Bleckley... Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...Chattooga... Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp... Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...Emanuel... Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Glascock... Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Haralson... Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...Jackson...Jasper... Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Lumpkin... Macon...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...Montgomery... Morgan...Murray...Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee... Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pickens...Pike...Polk... Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding... Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair... Toombs...Towns...Treutlen...Troup...Twiggs...Union...Upson... Walker...Walton...Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler... White...Whitfield...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....NListemaa AVIATION...Reaves